CON 38 (-1) LAB 21 (-4) LD 19 (nc) “Others” continue to have big impact on the shares A new poll from Ipsos-MORI shows Labour sharply down on the last survey from the firm taken the weekend before. The firm itself is quoting changes on a poll before the Euro elections when Labour dropped to 18%. This is a steep drop in just a week but perhaps reflects how the media was covering Labour in the period after the EU…
How else could he have got Labour to back his bid? Last night, in the aftermath of the commons election, the Indy writer, Steve Richards, talked in a TV interview about a private conversation that he’d had with Bercow just after the 2005 general election when the Buckingham MP revealed that his career objective was to become speaker. This has set me thinking. For how could a Tory, then in his early 40s, harbour such a dream when everything would…
New data points to 158 Tory gains While many Labour MPs might be celebrating that “their man” won yesterday’s election for the speaker there’s a sharp reminder of the challenge the party faces at the election in a new Harris poll for today’s Metro. The pollster which used to be one of the main firms in the UK has hardly been seen for years. The firm seems to operate online and is a member of the British Polling Council which…
Will the remaining votes split by their age groups? As we wait for the final result to be declared it strikes me that this is a generational battle – with Bercow picking up the younger age groups and Young the old one. And given that those who went out after round two were all above 60 I just wonder whether that gives a touch of hope to Young. I’m not betting on it though. Mike Smithson
Is it going to be Bercow after all? On the previous thread someone picked up this from the Guardian – “ To win, someone is going to have to get 298 votes. Bercow is well ahead of young, but even with all the Beckett votes and all the Dhanda votes he only gets up to 279 votes. Can he get another 20-odd votes from Beith? It could turn out to be very, very close.†My guess is that Young will…
How prices changed during the speeches The chart shows the changing prices on the leading speaker candidates as they were making their speeches. The winner was George Young follows by John Bercow. Widdy and Margaret Beckett were the losers. My view now is that Bercow might be stronger than I thought and I placed a 4/1 bet at Ladbrokes. ****Live Speaker betting prices**** Mike Smithson
The line-up for the first event was made by drawing lots. This is how it came out. Beckett Young Widdecombe Beith Bercow Shepherd Lord Cormack Haslehurst Dhanda Interestingly four of the first five in the betting will be on first. Quite whether this will be an advantage we will have to see. Certainly Dhanda, who’s proved himself to be an engaging communicator during the campaign, is on last. I wonder whether that might swing the odd vote and keep him…
Click for latest prices But could a late entrant act as a spoiler? The chart shows the changing prices for Next Speaker in the 24 hours from 4am yesterday to 4am today. The betting prices are shown as an implied probability. As can be seen there were quite a lot of changes in sentiment in this final day before this afternoon’s elections but as at the time of writing (4.30am) the punter view was that Margaret Beckett is going to…