A Marf original – Dec 2nd 2008 How many more will go in the coming days? One of the difficult things about political betting is that often your markets are long term. Unlike most sports betting you can often tie up cash for months maybe years – so news that one of those long-term bets is coming to fruition is very welcome. It was at the start of December 2008 that it was suggested here that the William Hill price…
UKPollingReport Does Brown’s future depend on beating expectations? Perhaps the most critical few hours in Gordon Brown political career will take place on Sunday evening when all the Euro results are coming in. For not only will we be able to find out the big picture but we should also get data, constituency by constituency, of how the parties did within the Westminster seat boundaries. It won’t take long before the news channels and pundits are extrapolating this into what…
ComRes WESTMINSTER: CON 30(-10) LAB 22(+1) LD 18 (nc) Tonight’s second shock poll is from ComRes for the Independent which shows a dramatic collapse in the Tory vote to just 30% while Labour is up one point at 22%. Fieldwork took place from Friday until Sunday at exactly the same time as this evening’s MORI poll which had C40-L18-LD18. So how come that all the other firms which have polled in recent days have the Conservatives in the range of…
Ipsos-MORI WESTMINSTER: CON 40(-1) LAB 18(-10) LD 18 (4) The “others” break down: * Scottish/Welsh national: 4% * Greens: 6% * UKIP: 7% * BNP: 4% * Other: 3% It must be remembered that MORI have a very strict filter on their headline figures and ONLY include those who are 100% certain to vote. This can have the effect of the pollster showing quite turbulent findings. Clearly, at the moment, Labour supporters have little certainty to vote – hence the…
YouGov Only 39% of UKIP voters will switch for the general The above table, which I’ve just clipped from YouGov’s cross-tabs on this morning’s poll, is the first time I’ve seen any attempt to link Euro election voting intention to what polling respondents plan to the in the general election. The interesting column is the one I’ve highlighted – what’s going to happen to the UKIP vote once the battle is about who runs Westminster. Inevitably UKIP’s share will drop…
Why are returning officers being stricter? I’ve been getting reports, which by their very nature have to be unofficial, that in many places the officers running Thursday’s elections are taking a very tough line on postal votes which are currently being received and verified. In several local authority areas the number of reject ballots is running at more than one in four. A common reason is that voters have not filled in their date of birth correctly – a measure…
And it’s not much change from the online pollster With all the other big political news I missed a new YouGov poll in the Telegraph this morning. The headline Westminster figures were CON 39(nc): LAB 22(-1): LDEM 18(-1). Clearly these have been affected by Thursday’s Euro election and “others” are at a very high level. The Lib Dems will de disappointed that there’s no confirmation of the progress that the ICM poll found yesterday but the online pollster has in…
Is his position now more flaky than Brown’s? After yesterday’s splash in the Sunday Times suggesting that Brown is planning to install his long-time former close aide, Ed Balls, as Chancellor there’s more gloomy news for the current incumbent, Alistair Darling, today. He’s the big focus of today’s MP expenses disclosures. The paper’s account doesn’t look good for the man in charge of the nation’s money. “..In July 2007, Mr Darling submitted a £1,004 claim for a service charge on…