Could Labour, be beaten by the UKIP caravan? In the 2004 Euro election campaign in the UK and so far during the 2009 campaign all the big shares for UKIP have come from the online pollster, YouGov or BPIX for which it carries out the fieldwork. Five years ago the firm was first to pick up the ground-swell of opinion in favour of the anti-EU party although at the end of the pollster overstated their national share. So this morning’s…
ComRes home-page CON 40(-5) LAB 21(-5) LD 18 (nc) Look how opinion has changed in the last 18 days? The fieldwork for the Indy on Sunday’s poll took place on Wednesday and Thursday and the first findings (non-voting related) from the poll were, I believe, released on the Daily Politics programme yesterday. The comparisons are with the last voting intention poll from the firm where the fieldwork finished on April 26th. Again, like with the non-registered BPIX, we see a…
CON 42 (-3) LAB 20(-3) LD 15 (-2) All the main parties take a BPIX hit The first poll of the weekend is out and shows that all the main parties are taking a hit with others reaching an an amazing 23%. The comparisons above are with the firm’s last survey a week ago. Clearly a lot of this is down to the expenses scandal – but we must take into account the Euro elections effect – polling around the…
could it all come to an end next week? Chris Huhne MP has added his voice to those in Parliament who now consider the Speaker’s days to be numbered. Douglas Carswell MP has tabled an unprecedented motion of No Confidence in the Speaker to be debated and voted upon next week, which has since been publicly supported by Ben Wallace MP. Norman Baker MP has also said on BBC Radio Scotland that he thinks it is “the end of the…
William Hill Politics What sort of regional vote shares would they need? Much has been made of the rise of the BNP, and their chances of winning seats in the European Parliament. We’ve seen some commentators notice that Labour’s PEB is no longer a beacon of multi-culturalism, and others decide to start anti-BNP campaigns. Whilst the issue of immigration and race relations has fallen off as fear about the Economy and Crime has grown, there can be no doubt that…
Is Gord just too inflexible for the modern age? A few weeks ago (before Smeargate) I bumped into an old mate who is now part of the team at Brown Central. He said he knew I wasn’t a great fan of Brown but what did I think of his man’s chances? I responded by saying that I thought Brown would get slaughtered in a general election campaign simply because he wasn’t nimble enough. In these days of 24/7 media coverage…
Should you take the 6/4 that the LDs will beat Labour? As I suggested in the previous thread there was some uncertainty about the Sun’s YouGov figures for the EU elections because of different numbers in the article and in the chart. I’ve now got clarification from the firm’s Peter Kelner who writes: “The Sun graphic shows all naming a party; the text shows “certain to votesâ€. (Lib dems are also on 19% – so three-way tie for 2nd place!)”….
The Sun Is it time to re-think June 4th betting? After arguing yesterday that UKIP that UKIP were unlikely to perform as well on June 4th as they did in 2004 I’m afraid I’m going to have to eat my words. For while we were all putting the focus on YouGov’s 22% share for Labour in a general election we over-looked the figures from an EU election voting intention question as well. There is a discrepancy between the body copy…