Could Labour, be beaten by the UKIP caravan?
In the 2004 Euro election campaign in the UK and so far during the 2009 campaign all the big shares for UKIP have come from the online pollster, YouGov or BPIX for which it carries out the fieldwork. Five years ago the firm was first to pick up the ground-swell of opinion in favour of the anti-EU party although at the end of the pollster overstated their national share.
So this morning’s survey of June 4th EU election voting intention from the telephone pollster, ComRes, that’s in the Sunday Express is even more significant. For the shares are: CON 28%: LAB 20%: LD 14%: UKIP 15%: GRN 11%: BNP 4%. The survey, I should add, was funded by UKIP.
Five years ago the biggest figure for UKIP from a conventional pollster was 13% – YouGov’s final survey, carried out in a different manner than the latest surveys, had them on 21%. They actually finished up with 16.1%.
So the ComRes EU election poll sees only a one point difference for Labour compared with the Westminster voting intentions but a 12 point gap for the Tories. The big winners in this well are the Greens who have not been figuring too highly in the YouGov related June 4th polls.
So much here is dependent on turnout and what marks ComRes out is its very fierce turnout filter and weighting. YouGov has, somewhat unusually compared with its standard Westminster surveys, been including a turnout element in its June 4th surveys but they make much less difference to the final outcome.
So as we move into the final two and a half weeks of the campaign it’s all down to how many electors actually both to go to the polling stations. In those areas where there are simultaneous local elections the proportion will be much higher. Elsewhere expect a low figure. In 1999 – the last time the EU parliament elections took place on their own, the figure dropped to below 30%.
I’ve got quite a bit on with William Hill at 5/1 that it will be below 30% this time as well. The bet is covered by a wager at 11/4 that it will be between 30% – 34.99%.