The People Will Ed swap jobs with Jacqui in June? I’ve just caught up with the above is story from The People which on reading sounds highly plausible. Ed Balls is hugely ambitious and as, so it is said, Brown’s choice as successor we should expect Number 10 to do everything to help. And what could help Balls most in his positioning for the leadership than to be holding or have held one of the three main offices of state?…
SERVER SOFTWARE HAS BEEN UPDATED, HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE NO PROBLEMS! BUT THERE MAY BE SOME ISSUES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS How will the Budget be viewed by football fans? So, Alistair Darling did go for Clear Red Water after all, as some of us predicted he might last week. The new 50% top rate of tax has been one of the main headline-grabbers of the budget, alongside the record-breaking predictions for borrowing. Much of the criticism of the…
UPDATED CON 45(nc) LAB 27(nc) LD 17(-1) At least for Gord it is not getting any worse News is now coming through of the new YouGov poll which is showing almost exactly the same party shares as in yesterday’s Daily Telegraph. The only difference being a oine point decline for the Lib Dems. The poll has been commissioned by the Sunday People. Interestingly like in the earlier YouGov poll there’s broad support for the specific budget measures. The problem is…
Or might it be the means to re-igniting the party after a defeat? For psephologists, one of the most interesting policies expounded by the Conservative party is that they will introduce individual voter registration to ‘restore the integrity of the ballot‘. It is considered a severe loop-hole that households are the registering unit at present, and that this leaves the system open to vote fraud – a problem that can be compounded by postal voting. No-one can be certain of…
How many U30s will make it into the Commons next time? I’ve been following the selection process for a Labour candidate in the safe seat of Erith & Thamesmead with some interest for the last couple of weeks. For those unfamiliar, there are eight candidates (all female) competing, and the battle-lines have been drawn between the union-supported candidate (Rachel Maskell) who has the backing of Charlie Whelan, and Georgia Gould, the daughter of Lord Gould (Phillip) who was the pollster…
Would he be a better face for the coming spending cuts? This afternoon I reinvested a small part of my budget winnings with two bets on the post of chancellor. The wagers are linked and both offer, I believe, good value for money. My first was to take the 9/2 from William Hill Politics that Alastair Darling will be replaced as chancellor during 2009. These seem great odds and, effectively, also give you coverage should there, indeed, be a 2009…
Ipsos-MORI Will party ratings move in line with economic optimism? This is the latest Economic Optimism Index from MORI which, as can be seen, has very much turned round and this month reached just -2%. This is the best since Mr Brown become prime minister and perhaps from the Labour perspective is the best indicator that they might just be in with a shout. The index is taken by subtracting the negative number from the positive one and the results…
UKPollingReport 2008 polls Could we see the same during this election year? Remember the last post-Budget YouGov poll in March 2008? It was so out of line with other surveys at the time that the term “rogue” was used to describe 23 times on the PB thread that night. The immediate conclusion of one of the site’s regular statistician contributors was “.…YouGov has to be treated as a rogue for the moment.. I suspect the true position is still something…