Picture credit:Steve Black What’s the next year got in store for Cameron? On Good Friday in 2010 we could either be at the start of an election campaign which might or might not have been formally started. It’s also possible, if some recent suggestions are anything to go by that the election will already have taken place and Cameron might or might not be in Downing Street. For unless other polls follow last weekend’s YouGov survey it’s hard to see…
Take part in the PB Million Prize Competition In the next few weeks the whole MPs’ expenses scandal is going to take on a new dimension when full details and documentation covering every member over a three year period are made public. Tucked away in that mass of information will be odd items that will be even more outrageous and shocking than anything we have seen so far. Jackie Ashley in the Guardian on Monday was saying that the behaviour…
The other day I was asked whether I thought that modern polling still had any weaknesses and what would we be saying about their final predictions in comparison with the outcome on the Friday after the next general election. Are there any segments of the electorate who have a markedly different political profile from the norm who might be being over or under-represented in current polling approaches? The obvious group is the over 55s for we know that older voters…
Who’ll submit comment number 1,000,000? Just five years and two weeks after PB was established at some stage in the next 24 hours somebody is going to submit the one millionth comment. This is an extraordinary number and an achievement that all who are part of the PB community, lurkers and commenters alike, can feel proud of. As I write at 4am the total stands at 998,482 – just over 1,500 to go. So it could be later on this…
Populus Last night’s big news was the Populus survey for the Times showing that the Tories had extended their lead to 13% – which was in sharp contrast to YouGov the day before that had the gap in hung parliament territory – just 7%. Well I’ve just got round to examining the detailed data and as shown above the poll would have been much worse for Brown’s party but for the so-called “spiral of silence” adjustment. Under this the pollsters…
How’s the independence referendum going to go? There’s a new market out on the planned Scottish referendum on independence. The opening prices are 1/3 NO and 2/1 YES. What do you think – where’s the best betting value?
Wikipedia Does YouGov point to Brown breaking through the 32% ceiling? As PB regulars will know I’m very sceptical about averaging polls because the pollsters all operate in such different ways that lumping them all into one big number does not really add to anything and can often give a distorted view. There’s was a well researched comment on this by Andy Cooke last night that’s now been made into a full post on PB Channel 2 . A good…
PB Moneys says Index: CON MAJ 53: Up 8 seats There’s been a sharp move back to the Tories on the Sporting Index Commons seats spread markets following the latest polls showing that Cameron’s party is retaining its position. The latest figures with the SELL price first and the BUY price second are: CON 349 – 354: LAB 226 – 231: LD 43 – 46 seats. This represents a four seat shift since Saturday. Here punters looking for high risk/high…