What’s the next year got in store for Cameron?
On Good Friday in 2010 we could either be at the start of an election campaign which might or might not have been formally started. It’s also possible, if some recent suggestions are anything to go by that the election will already have taken place and Cameron might or might not be in Downing Street.
For unless other polls follow last weekend’s YouGov survey it’s hard to see Brown opting to risk it this year. And if the election is to be in 2010 then he might not want to have closed his timing options off by waiting till the very end. An early, March possibly, election next year could be on the cards almost whatever the polls are doing.
The question then is will the outcome be what the polls, most pundits, and the betting markets indicate or could the electorate still have a surprise for us? And if the latter is there a chance that a workable Tory majority government is not what happens?
We’ve often looked at the challenge that the electoral arithmetic presents to Cameron and as the last seat boundary review gets even more out of date then the electoral terrain gets a bit more favourable to Labour.
But what happens to Cameron if he doesn’t make it and Labour are able to squeeze back in if only as a minority government. Is there a stage where Cameron’s leadership could be on the line?