Kadima win the election but look set to lose the battle for PM So, in the end, the oft-derided Israeli exit polls were right, with Kadima having a very narrow seat lead, beating Likud 28-27, but for the opinion pollsters this proved to be a “1992”, with Likud leading virtually all the polls and some by wide margins. Unlike in previous elections, the counting of the double envelope votes from the military, diplomats etc didn’t improve the showing of Likud…
Is Alan Johnson really Labour’s last chance? …and could Paul Moore bring down the PM? Under the title “Only Johnson can hold back the Tories” (I initially wondered if he was referring to Boris), the Independent’s commentator argues that Alan Johnson could be the man to save Labour from its impending electoral doom. I suspect that Labour has one last chance to avoid a crushing loss at the next election, which is why it is interesting that Alan Johnson, the…
CONSERVATIVES 44% (+1) LABOUR 32% (nc) LIB DEMS 14% (-2) And the online pollster has the LDs going down So the second of tonight’s polls is now out – YouGov for the Sunday Times – and is showing a very different picture from the ComRes survey announced earlier and the previous ICM and Populus polls. The telephone pollsters – ICM, Populus and ComRes had all reported increases in the Lib Dem shares and Labour in the 20s. YouGov has the…
CONSERVATIVES 41% (-2) LABOUR 25% (-3) LIB DEMS 22% (+6) A third poll shows a surge for Clegg’s party In what is a sensational poll the February survey from ComRes for the Indy on Sunday reports a huge increase in the Lib Dem shares, a further fall-off for Labour and the Tories still comfortably in 40s. A week ago when ICM had the Lib Dems up to 22% the initial reaction was that the survey might have been an outlier…
Could Ed Balls be the best value outside bet? John Rentoul on the Independent’s new blog platform has written an epic two-part feature for GQ magazine on Ed Balls’ apparent ambitions to be leader of his party (see part I and part II). He acknowledges that the idea might seem preposterous to many, and quotes a aide to former Prime Minister Tony Blair: Until recently, this has been a ridiculous prospect. I couldn’t even finish the question before one aide…
A note from Peter the Punter One of our regular posters, Andrew Woodman [Woody 622], has contacted me with the suggestion that a number of PBers may be interested in forming a Syndicate to lease a racehorse. The Syndicate he has in mind is organised under the title of Koo’s racing club, and full details may be obtained from the website www.koos-racing-club.com We have a particular horse in mind. It is an unraced two year old bay gelding by Xaar…
Could this affect Commons seats projections? Most people with an interest in politics and election outcomes are familiar with the term – Uniform National Swing. But how many understand how the numbers are made up and that there are two very different approaches to making the calculations. I raise this because I have to admit that until not so long ago I got it all wrong. My assumption was that if Party A was up by a tenth on the…
guardian.co.uk Has Kettle got it right about Mr. Brown? There’s a biting column on Mr. Brown and the economic crisis by Martin Kettle in the Guardian this morning on the reluctance of the Prime Minister to take any responsibility whatsoever for what’s gone on in Britain’s banks. Discussing first Mr. Brown’s tendency to put tactics ahead of strategy Kettle looks at what’s gone on the the past few weeks and makes the case that a reluctance by Brown to accept…