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Month: February 2009

MEMO to MSM: Pre-2001 polls cannot be compared

MEMO to MSM: Pre-2001 polls cannot be compared

UKPollingReport Remember the days of the Labour over-staters? Yet again in discussing the latest YouGov poll we have seen a pile of rubbish from supposedly “expert” pundits who should know better. Just look at the polls above just as the 1997 general election was being declared. Look at the crazy Labour leads that were being forecasted. Compare them with the actual result. The issue, of course, is that all but ICM in 1997 were polling in the old-fashioned Labour over-stating…

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How big a screw-up was the “depression” word?

How big a screw-up was the “depression” word?

Does Brown need to be more careful at PMQs? There’s been a big spin operation going on from Number 10 this afternoon to “make clear” that when Brown said he thought the world was “in a depression” it was, as they say, a “slip of the tongue.” Not good particularly as it’s only a few weeks ago that his last big “slip of the tongue” led to the hiatus over him saying he was the “saviour of the world“. The…

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Labour slip back in C4 YouGov marginals poll

Labour slip back in C4 YouGov marginals poll

CONSERVATIVES 43% (nc) LABOUR 36% (-2) LIB DEMS 13% (+1) But are these seats so different from the norm? The figures above are taken Channel 4’s unique marginals poll and is the third of a series that has been commissioned by the channel. The changes shown are on the last such survey published in October after the bail-out bounce. Fieldwork finished yesterday and the sample consisted of 2005 electors in in 60 seats where Labour’s majority (on the new boundaries)…

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Could the marginals bring a smile back to his face?

Could the marginals bring a smile back to his face?

How are the parties doing in the seats where it matters most? Later today I’m hoping that we’ll see the third in a polling series which is looking at the next election from a very specific viewpoint – what’s happening in the LAB>CON marginals where Labour is defending majorities of between 6 per cent and 14 per cent. For unlike normal voting intention polls where electors in the 600 or so seats across England, Scotland, and Wales can be involved,…

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What’ll conspiracy theorists make of the Glenrothes fiasco?

What’ll conspiracy theorists make of the Glenrothes fiasco?

Why have the key by-election records “gone missing”? The Glenrothes by election last November was critical to the personal standing of the prime minister. The constituency is adjacent to Gordon’s, both he and his wife campaigned there, and the Labour candidate and now MP was the head of the school where Gordon went. The fact that the Prime Minister became so associated with the Labour campaign was highly unusual and was seen as a big political risk. The only opinion…

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Is a Tory victory being taken too much for granted?

Is a Tory victory being taken too much for granted?

How much of a certainty is a Cameron majority? Columns by the Independent’s Steve Richards are not normally my first point of reference but in his piece for the paper today he makes a valid point – the pundits are being premature in regarding a Tory victory as almost a certainty. We saw it in a number of pieces at the weekend and clearly the terrible spate of January polls after what appeared to be a Labour recovery has had…

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Is an “assisted places scheme” being planned for Jacqui?

Is an “assisted places scheme” being planned for Jacqui?

Will she be given another seat so she can stay an MP? According to a comment on an earlier thread there are suggestions that Labour is trying to ensure that the Home Secretary, the Oxford-educated Jacqui Smith, is not thrown out of the commons at the next election. Of the leading cabinet members Jacqui’s seat at Redditch has the thinnest majority and stands to be lost with a swing of just 2.3%. This makes it Tory target number 41 and…

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