CONSERVATIVES 43% (nc)
LABOUR 36% (-2)
LIB DEMS 13% (+1)
But are these seats so different from the norm?
The figures above are taken Channel 4’s unique marginals poll and is the third of a series that has been commissioned by the channel. The changes shown are on the last such survey published in October after the bail-out bounce.
Fieldwork finished yesterday and the sample consisted of 2005 electors in in 60 seats where Labour’s majority (on the new boundaries) was 6-14% over the Conservatives. LS on the previous thread calculated that at the last election the shares in these seats would have been CON 34%: LAB 44%: LD 16% – so all swings need to be based on those numbers.
By my calculation the swing from Labour to the Tories in the marginals poll is slightly higher than in the last standard YouGov survey – but still within the margins of error. So although it supports the idea it doesn’t provide clear-cut evidence that the marginals are behaving differently.
My guess is that as we get closer to the election then the difference between Channel 4 News 60 and standard YouGov polls will increase. Voters become more aware of the situation in their specific seats and, of course, campaigning levels will be a lot higher.
Whatever the poll provides further evidence that the Tories could get a very big majority.
The only slight problem for Cameron is that those polled preferred Ken Clarke to George Osborne as Chancellor by 39% to 15%. The split amongst Lib Dem voters was Clarke 47% – Osborne 9%.
UPDATE: YouGov’s Peter Kellner has since advised me that the baseline percentages in the seats they polled were: Lab 44: Con 33: LD 17: OTH 6. This is slightly different from the figures above and suggests that the Tories might be doing better in the marginals than my initial conclusion.