Labour nudge up two points from their record low The second of the night’s opinion polls, from YouGov for the Sunday Times, shows a small improvement for Labour on the last survey from the firm at the end of May. The latest figures with changes on that poll are: CON 47% (nc): LAB 25% (+2): LD 18% (nc). The fieldwork took place on Thursday and Friday – important because it was on Thursday that David Davis made his big announcement….
A new poll by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday gives the Tories an 18% lead. These are the numbers and changes compared with the last poll by the firm at the end of May. CON 44% (+1): LAB 26% (nc): LD 17% (-2): OTH 13% (+1) CON 44% (nc): LAB 26% (-4): LD 17% (+1) But the pollster found that Tory support dropped sharply after David Davis announced he was standing down. In interviews before 1pm on Thursday, the…
Spread punters start backing the Tories again The big move back to Labour on commons seats spread betting markets has taken a tumble during the day with Tory buying and Labour selling causing a four seat switch with both main parties. Based on the mid-points from the Sporting Index prices above the market is now reflecting a Tory overall majority of 28 seats at the next election compared with the 20 seat projection that Morus reported last night. True this…
Have punters got this one right? The latest buy spread level for Lib Dem general election seats is 48 – that’s 15 short of what they have at the moment. Does this represent a betting opportunity and if so which way? The detailed data from the latest ICM polls shows that Labour was just three percent ahead of the LDs before the application of of the so-called “spiral of silence adjustment” – the calculation whereby a proportion of the vote…
Are Tory supporters getting nervous? Mike Smithson has asked me to highlight significant movement on the Sporting Index political spreadbetting markets. After victory in the Crewe & Nantwich by-election, the mid-point between the Buy and Sell price on Conservative seats at the next election had been around 350, implying that David Cameron would enjoy a majority of around 50. Today, that mid-point price dropped to 335, suggesting a majority of only 20. It seems inevitable that this is largely in…
No has 53.7% with just 5 results left With a joint statement expected from Merkel and Sarkozy this evening, what will be the next step for the EU after a comfortable win for the “No” camp in Ireland? Only eight out of 38 constituencies declared have so far voted Yes, with a margin of just 4 votes in Carlow-Kilkenny. RTE Irish Times Results detail Double Carpet
No leads comfortably in most parts of Ireland Early indications as the count proceeds in Ireland are that the Lisbon Treaty referendum has been lost. Tallies from the constituencies show that most of the country is voting No by a wide margin (60-40 in some Dublin seats for example). No constituencies have yet declared, and the final result is expected by teatime. If this result is confirmed there will certainly be some thinking to be done at the EU, and…
Will we still remember the cause on polling day? I’m on the penultimate day of my touring holiday in Spain and haven’t had much access to the UK media during the past extraordinary 24 hours so it’s hard forming an opinion of how this is going to play. Hopefully we should see some quickie poll soundings which will give a sense of whether the former Shadow Home Secretary has made a ghastly mistake or whether he has public support. A…