How many will fall to the Tories on election day? I was right – Obama running mate betting was a mugs’ game but one, alas, that I found irresistible. This betting disaster has cost me dear and it’s perhaps time for me to fall back on what so far has proved profitable in the past – the next UK general election where if you can anticipate the way market sentiment will change you can go in, then get out and…
Could the announcement go down like a damp squib? The circumstantial evidence overnight seems to suggest that Obama is about to announce that Joe Biden has been selected as his running mate. Certainly that’s what punters think and as I write he’s tightened to 1/4 on Betfair. The chart above shows the implied probability of the three key players based on their latest UK betting odds. The one thing I cannot understand is why Obama has waited for so long…
Drudge reports Obama-Bayh material being produced Four years ago it was the aviation blogs that broke the story of the Kerry-Edwards ticket, when a plane was customised with their banner. Now Matt Drudge, who famously broke the story of Lewinski’s blue dress, is reporting that a firm in Kansas City is producing Obama-Bayh ‘material’. Bumper stickers with any number of whacky tickets arent rare (‘Obama-McCain ’08’ is available if you think that’s still possible…) but industrial quantity production is either…
Is the NRA-sponsored Governor of Montana still in the running? I am still of the view that there are plenty of names washing around that are done to muddy the issue of who Obama will actually choose. I’m interested in the names that were in contention, but that the campaign have sought to keep out of the limelight whilst final-stage vetting was being done. I mentioned Bill Richardson and (for the Republicans) Mike Huckabee for this reason a few weeks…
How far will Barack go to secure a successful convention? I’m travelling through France, the only internet access I’ve got is on my phone and have not been able to keep up with PB threads or the news. But from what I can gather Obama’s running mate has not yet been announced and the speculation and betting goes on. And the more I have thought about it over the past 24 hours the more I have become convinced that Barack…
And still we wait… In spite of hints and rumours, there is still no confirmation of Barack Obama’s running mate as he speaks to a small crowd in Richmond, Virginia with Governor Tim Kaine. He is attacking McCain for having seven houses worth $13m – the Republican was unable to say how many properties he owned when asked earlier this week. A small package of white powder has been sent to a McCain campaign office in Denver, according to breaking…
Henry G Manson says the 11/4 on Cathy is a good value bet Cathy Jamieson is the acting Scottish Labour Leader following the resignation of Wendy Alexander. She was the party’s Deputy Leader before this contest and has previously been Minster for Justice and for Children. As the election race progresses her rivals for the top post, Iain Gray and Andy Kerr, risk being outshone by this feisty woman with a canny eye for a headline . The nominations from…
Could Cameron really be heading for a 260 seat majority? One of the things I often write when talking about UK polling is that based on two decades of general elections, every single London mayoral race and every single by election where there has been polling the “golden rule” has applied. This says simply that the most accurate survey when tested against real votes has been the one that has had Labour in the least favourable position. So the seat…