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Year: 2008

In the Sunday papers

In the Sunday papers

The leading political stories from today’s papers Once again, a dismal set of stories for Downing Street, as the fin de siecle feel continues for the government, rather like 1995-7. There’s another unhelpful intervention from Tony Blair, courtesy of the usual “well-placed sources”. Brown should consider standing down rather than face the humiliation of an election defeat, says the former PM, while the same article reports that Ruth Kelly is expected to quit in a Cabinet reshuffle expected this autumn….

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Are the markets moving into closer alignment with the polls?

Are the markets moving into closer alignment with the polls?

Is now the moment to resume spread-betting? Ever though Labour has been in serious trouble since March budget there has been a marked reluctance punters to acknowledge the evidence of the polls and bet on the Tories and against Labour on the commons spread betting markets. Quite why this should have been I do not know especially if you compare the above seat numbers with UKPolling Report projections of what the latest polls suggest if there was a uniform national…

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Could Polly’s column herald the start of the “revolution”?

Could Polly’s column herald the start of the “revolution”?

But who will carry out the great lady’s command? With the first of the September conferences, the TUC, just about to start the Guardian columnist, Polly Toynbee, returns to the theme she was developing a few weeks ago that Gordon, the Labour leader that she invested so much in, has to go. Her dismissal of what’s happening at Number 10 is vicious and she clearly she is on a mission. Her first paragraph sets the scene “..The smell of death…

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Is this optimism justified?

Is this optimism justified?

Or is Chris Hune indulging in a little wishful thinking? Chris Huhne, the Lib Dem spokesman on Home Affairs, has written an article for LibDem Voice that seeks to reassure activists the party will in fact do better at the next election than the prophets of doom suggest. He writes: “The new conventional wisdom at Westminster is that the Conservatives are heading for an overall majority at the next election, and that the Liberal Democrats are therefore bound to take…

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Has Populus thwarted Miliband’s chances?

Has Populus thwarted Miliband’s chances?

What’s the point of ousting Gord if Labour would do no better? It seems an age ago, but it was only the end of July, that David Miliband produced his famous Guardian article that was seen as a challenge to Brown’s leadership. The Foreign Secretary denied it of course but the widespread assumption was that he was a laying down a marker for a future leadership challenge. Since then, until today, there has been no proper polling evidence about the…

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Continuation Thread: Will McCain be overshadowed?

Continuation Thread: Will McCain be overshadowed?

How will he compare to Obama and Palin in his acceptance speech? John McCain has many qualities, but being a big-venue orator is not first amongst them. Having seen Obama put on a remarkable show last Thursday in Denver, John McCain saw his VP pick, Governor Palin, deliver a superb address last night. She managed to enthuse the Convention Center to an extent not seen previously this week, and has received glowing reviews in the midst of a hostile media…

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How should Brown respond to this?

How should Brown respond to this?

Is is time for a McCain-style gamble? Charles Clarke, the former Home Secretary, has launched another not-so-subtle attack on Gordon Brown, claiming in the New Statesman that Labour “is destined to disaster if we go on as we are” and that “we will not allow that to happen”. In spite of some fairly significant pressing concerns about the Party and the Government, fully a quarter of the article is given over to complaints that the term ‘Blairite’ is being used…

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Do McCain-Palin now have more than a 35% chance?

Do McCain-Palin now have more than a 35% chance?

Should you be getting your money on? There was a marked move to John McCain in the next President betting as his running mate pick, Sarah Palin delivered her acceptance speech at the Republican convention. 0000(BST) Betfair price reflects a 33.5% implied probability of a McCain-Palin victory 0300 just before the start of her speech it rises to 35%. 0330 while she is speaking the price moves to a 36.5% probability 0500 the price has eased up to a 35.8%…

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