Do McCain-Palin now have more than a 35% chance?

Do McCain-Palin now have more than a 35% chance?


    Should you be getting your money on?

There was a marked move to John McCain in the next President betting as his running mate pick, Sarah Palin delivered her acceptance speech at the Republican convention.

0000(BST) Betfair price reflects a 33.5% implied probability of a McCain-Palin victory
0300 just before the start of her speech it rises to 35%.
0330 while she is speaking the price moves to a 36.5% probability
0500 the price has eased up to a 35.8% implied probability.

In exactly two months time, on the morning on November 5th, when we are assessing the presidential election results that have come in overnight will you be regretting not having taken the prices that were available in the past few hours or will we wonder how they ever got that close.

Sarah Palin is a new face, she’s attractive and she’s certainly not the McCain running mate that all the pundits were suggesting just a week ago. The question now is what her electoral impact will be?

    But a heavily staged convention speech using words that have been written for her in front of thousands of cheering supporters is one thing – her next big tests, the one to one TV interviews, will be another.

It’s in these, of course, that the questions her candidature has raised about her background and beliefs will be probed and dissected. Will she perform well or could cracks be exposed. She looks tough and certainly appears the part.

For now I’ll be watching the polling very closely. The convention should produce a bounce – but how big will it be and can it be sustained?

This is all boiling up into one heck of an election.

Mike Smithson

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