Why the default assumption is against Labour With two polls this morning showing very different outcomes and both apparently have taken place at the same it’s perhaps a good moment to bring PB’s “Golden Polling Rule” out again. Just to recall YouGov in the Sunday Times has the Tory lead narrowing to 5% while ComRes in the Indy on Sunday has it increasing to 12%. Eh? For based on the polling record at every single major election since the 1980s…
CONSERVATIVES 43% (+4) LABOUR 32% (+1) LIB DEMS 12% (-4) How can we explain the contradictory findings? So what are we to make of all of this. First we get the YouGov poll covered in the previous thread where the Tory lead is down to 5%. Then we see the latest ComRes poll for the IoS which reports a Tory share of 43% and a lead of 11%. My guess is that a much larger proportion of the ComRes fieldwork…
CONSERVATIVES 41% (-1) LABOUR 36% (+3) LIB DEMS 14% (-1) Labour back to General Election level of support The first of tonight’s new national opinion polls is just out and has Labour narrowing even further the gap with the Tories. The five point margin, if repeated at a general election, puts a general election well within hung parliaments territory. My comparisons above are with the last poll from the pollster. No doubt the Sunday Times will follow its normal and…
Will George Osborne be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer? With all the talk swirling around George Osborne’s ‘breach of convention’ by commenting on the sharp decline of the pound against the dollar and euro, and what appears to be a co-ordinated campaign led by the Telegraph newspaper to see him moved, I decided to check Betfair’s ‘Next Chancellor market’. George Osborne is still the favourite if you consider the last traded price (3.8 for Osborne, 5.1 for Ed Balls),…
Steamrollers can be tricky to drive In the rush to try and secure 60 US Senate seats, and to breach the 250-seat mark in the House of Representatives, I wonder whether the Obama campaign ever considered that you could have too much of a good thing. For instance, I found it strange that, with such a fundraising advantage, Obama wasn’t redistributing his campaign’s wealth to tight Congressional races. This would have allowed for extra members of the Democratic majority in…
Will Obama’s former rival become part of his team? There are reports in the US media this evening that Hillary Clinton might be offered a key role in Barack Obama’s government which formally takes power on January 20th 2009. According to CNN the two former rivals met in Chicago at Obama’a request and the speculation is that she might be being offered the role of Secretary of State. The suggestion is that such an appointment would allow him to focus…
Did it go wrong with his evasive PMQ responses? It’s perhaps hard to recall but just two days ago when the Baby P PMQ row first blew up it was running down towards the bottom of the bulletins. There were several other stories getting the attention and it looked as though Brown might have been able to move on. Not so today with further revelations about the handling of the case emerging and the Prime Minister having to make statements…
My first 2012 bet: Jon Huntsman at 200/1 When the first 2012 White House race betting prices were being compiled last week many of the names that came up were ones we were familiar with already – 2008 contenders and those who had been tipped at one stage or another as John McCain’s running mate. One person who has hardly been mentioned and, indeed, only one bookie is quoting a price is Jon Huntsman, governor of Utah and someone who…