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Year: 2008

It’s showtime in Iowa

It’s showtime in Iowa

So who’s going to do best out of tonight’s caucuses? After months of fundraising, debates, speculation, and poll-watching, the moment has finally arrived, and the Iowa caucuses, the first time that people actually get to vote on the merits of the rival candidates, are here. The caucuses kick off at 1am UK time and C-Span’s streaming coverage will start at midnight (7pm ET). The Betfair Iowa markets are now “in-play” and have Obama and Huckabee as strong odds-on favourites to…

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So what can we expect in 2008?

So what can we expect in 2008?

A look ahead to the year in politics Later today on PBC: the Iowa caucuses It can often be foolhardy to predict the year ahead in public, as one’s predictions can often look ridiculous by the end of the year – or if you’re lucky, extraordinarily prescient. With that in mind, a few thoughts on 2008, for the UK, USA, and the rest of the world. UK My “long view” is that May 2010 will be the election date, and…

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YouGov has Ken just 1% ahead

YouGov has Ken just 1% ahead

The Lib Dem’s Paddick is down at just 7% A new poll by YouGov for for ITV’s London Tonight puts Ken on 45 per cent, just one point above Boris with the Lib-Dem candidate Brian Paddick trailing on seven per cent in what looks set to be the biggest domestic battle during 2008. If the Tories managed to unseat Livingston it would be a major political upset and a big set-back for Brown. It will no doubt be recalled that…

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2008 – the opening General Election prices

2008 – the opening General Election prices

Have the betting markets got it about right? On the first working day of the year I thought it might be useful, as a point of reference to record the latest UK general election betting prices. These seem to suggest that punters believe that the Conservatives will be the top party but will be someway short of an overall majority. We last recorded the prices like this as a matter of record on June 27th 2007 – the day that…

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Are these the numbers to look out for tomorrow night?

Are these the numbers to look out for tomorrow night?

Will you be staying up for the big political betting night? With the very first test of public opinion in the 2008 White House race due to take place tomorrow night the big question is how many Iowans are going to bother to turn out to attend the caucus meetings that could set the tone for the whole process of choosing the Democratic and GOP candidates. The critical element is that so few people are likely to be involved. For…

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…And the Political Forecaster of 2007 is MikeL

…And the Political Forecaster of 2007 is MikeL

How well did you do at forecasting the political scene last year? The final results for the 2007 PBC prediction competition have now been number-crunched – the top 20 are shown above, while the full results are available via the link below. Congratulations to the leading forecasters and thanks to everyone who took part. PBC 2007 results detail 2007 – a brief look back The 2007 political year has now been put to bed, in many ways a momentous year…

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Boost for Obama and Huckabee with 2 days to go

Boost for Obama and Huckabee with 2 days to go

Will the state’s main paper be the top pollster again? In the 2004 race for the Democratic nomination the final poll for the state’s main newspaper, the Des Moines Register, came closest to predicting what was a sensational result – the defeat of the early front runner and heavy odds-on favourite, Howard Dean. After his defeat there the former governor of Vermont never really recovered and the winner of the state caucuses, John Kerry, went on to take the nomination….

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