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Year: 2008

Is McCain’s bid “like a woman having a baby in her late 50s?”

Is McCain’s bid “like a woman having a baby in her late 50s?”

Newsweek raises the age question After his sensational victory in the Florida GOP primary overnight John McCain has become an even more firm odds-on favourite to take the nomination. By 0430 GMT the Betfair price in response to the result had tightened to 0.15/1 which given the fact the the market won’t be settled until September looks crazy. You only bet at such odds-on prices when the market will be resolved in a few days – to lock up your…

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Florida election night…. continued

Florida election night…. continued

CNN calls GOP race for McCain, leads Romney by 3-4 pts Halperin reporting Rudy will drop out & endorse McCain Hillary called winner in delegate-free Democrat contest Please post comments here to ease server pressure. Double Carpet

Is this where McCain will virtually clinch it?

Is this where McCain will virtually clinch it?

…or will the Romney money machine seize victory? And so the next US election night on Politicalbetting. This time it’s Florida, the biggest state to decide so far and the one that has seen the most fierce battles for the GOP crown. The Democratic party does have an election but because, like Michigan a fortnight ago, the state defied the national party on the timing what’s decided by today’s voting will not count. However if it the delegate count between…

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How much damage is Dick Morris doing to the Clintons?

How much damage is Dick Morris doing to the Clintons?

Just two months before the presidential election in 1996 dick Morris, the man who went on to advise UKIP for their Euro-Election campaign in 2004, appeared on the front page of Time magazine alongside Bill Clinton who was, of course, running for a second term. Now he has become, arguably, the fiercest critic of the couple through his blog, through press articles and TV appearances. He’s the one that gets asked to comment on his former client’s campaign style and…

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Now ComRes shows that the Tories are faltering

Now ComRes shows that the Tories are faltering

…and the Hain affair does not seem to have hurt Labour The first poll to be carried out after the Hain resignation, by ComRes for the Independent, is showing that the Tory lead is down three points to 8%. The figures are with changes on December – CON 38%(-3): LAB 30%(nc): LD 17%(+1). So the trends we have seen with ICM and YouGov have continued with the pollster that has been recording the best Tory figures – the Tory share…

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Mayoral poll based on just 240 voters

Mayoral poll based on just 240 voters

How much can you trust a survey with such a small sample? The detailed data on YouGov’s London mayoral survey is out today and there are two things to highlight – the survey took place AFTER the controversial Channel 4 Dispatches programme last Monday but the size of the sample was just about the smallest that I can recall from the firm. In their normal national voting intention surveys YouGov generally involve about 2000 people. The figure for Saturday’s Daily…

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How damaging is Conway to Cameron?

How damaging is Conway to Cameron?

Will there be few tears shed for David Davis’s rounder-upper? This lunchtime’s news that Tory MP Derek Conway faces a 10-day Commons suspension after the standards watchdog said he paid his son too much from parliamentary allowances. Freddie Conway, received a salary as a researcher while he was studying at Newcastle University. The only problem was, according to the report “.. no records appear to exist of either actual work that Freddie did for his father, or of the work…

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Is this now a clash of the Democratic Dynasties?

Is this now a clash of the Democratic Dynasties?

How will Kennedy’s endorsement affect the race? The excellent US Politico site is reporting that a major battle has been going on between the Obama and Clinton camps over plans by Ted Kennedy to appear on a platform with Barack Obama today and give his blessing to the Illinois senator in the fight for the Democratic nomination. The importance of the move can be measured by the efforts that the Clinton campaign has made to try to stop Kennedy making…

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