Could McCain’s supporters think its safe to switch elections? An aspect of the US primary system that is probably a surprise to many outside the country is the extent to which in many states independents and supporters of the opposing party can decide to vote in a different election. So today, as we finally arrive at “Super Tuesday”, a factor we have to look at is whether this will happen and how it could affect the results. So with John…
Tory lead boosted to 9% in spite of problems The figures from this month’s Populus poll for the Times are just out and show an increase in the Tory lead. The shares are CON 40% (nc): LAB 31% (-2): LD 17% (-2). The Tory share of 40% equals the best the pollster has recorded since the general election and the nine point margin is the best. I go back to the point that I repeatedly raise – that Tory poll…
…or will Barack’s polling surge turn out to be like New Hampshire? I detect a real sense of nervousness amongst punters about the latest round of US polling ahead of Super Tuesday. After what appeared a certain win for Obama in New Hampshire four weeks ago there has been a, perhaps, natural reluctance to get swept away by the latest moves to Obama in the Democratic race. Yet the growing support for the black Senator from Illinois in both national…
Obama almost catching up in the national polls The above polls, reproduced from Taegan Goddard’s Politicalwire show the latest polling figures from many of the states which will be having their primaries on the day. As can be seen the Clinton-Obama shares in many places are converging. It’s the same picture nationally where the latest Gallup tracking poll shows Clinton locked in a statistical tie with Obama, 46% to 44%. Given that yesterday’s Gallup tracker had Clinton 7% ahead then…
So will we be any wiser on Wednesday? Super Tuesday, Super Duper Tuesday, Giga Tuesday, Tsunami Tuesday, The Tuesday of Destiny, even by the standards of the US media there has been a healthy amount of hyperbole used to describe the string primaries and caucuses being staged on Tuesday Febuary 5th. To a certain extent, the hype is justified, while primary campaigns since the 1980’s have seen “Super Tuesdays†with many states holding simultaneous primaries or caucuses none have approached…
Has the Conway business actually helped Dave? A new ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph tomorrow has the following shares with changes on the last published survey from the pollster – CON 37% (nc): LAB 32% (-3): LD 21% (+1) These numbers will certainly ease Tory jitters and deflate the bubble of expectation amongst Labour supporters that followed yesterday’s MORI poll showing the party with a one point lead. All these changes, it should be said, are within the margin…
What if There Were a By-Election in Old Bexley and Sidcup? Unlike Rod Crosby, I don’t anticipate a by-election in this seat. However, it’s worth giving some thought to what would happen if Derek Conway were to step down, and a by-election called. The seat itself is a mighty Conservative stronghold. Conway had a majority of nearly 10,000 over Labour in 2005. In the local elections of 2006, the Conservatives won all 24 council seats in the constituency, and took…