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Month: October 2008

Will it be another gaffe-free performance from Obama?

Will it be another gaffe-free performance from Obama?

So here we are – the final debate of the 2008 US Presidential Election which is taking place at Hofstra University in Hempstead, Long Island. Although tonight the main focus on the economy the big question is whether, even at this late stage, John McCain can force Obama into an error that could change the race. If the junior senator from Illinois survives then he could become an even hotter favourite than he already is. A Politico analysis summed it…

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Can the PB community get the US election right?

Can the PB community get the US election right?

In recent weeks several members of the PB community have been keeping score-cards of the state polling and have been making projections of what is going to happen on November 4th in the 2008 Presidential election. So let’s widen this out. The last time we ran an election prediction survey was on the Glasgow East by election and, unlike the so called panel “experts and insiders ” at Politics Home, we got the result spot on. Lets try to do…

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Was Brown Labour’s “Weakest Link” in 1997?

Was Brown Labour’s “Weakest Link” in 1997?

What does this say about his potential at the next general election? Almost everybody with an interest in politics remembers May 1st 1997 – the day that Tony Blair’s Labour party swept to power after eighteen years in the wilderness. The 13% margin in the popular vote and the way anti Tory voters were prepared to vote for whoever in their seat had the best chance of beating the Tory meant that Labour’s landslide majority was substantially greater than any…

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How will Canada look after the “credit crunch election”?

How will Canada look after the “credit crunch election”?

Click graphic for CBC results coverage Live coverage of Canada 2008 election results Welcome to live coverage on PB of the results from Canada, following PM Stephen Harper’s decision to call a snap election. Leading or elected: Conservatives 144 Liberals 74 BQ 50 NDP 38 Independent 2 Greens 0 Conservative minority government CBC Toronto Star Elections Canada Coverage via C-Span Double Carpet

Will the Bush move add to the Brown renaissance?

Will the Bush move add to the Brown renaissance?

How will the Tories attack “the man who saved the world“? This afternoon’s announcement by President Bush that the US government is to spend $250m buying stakes in troubled banks provides further ammunition for those who are trying to turn round Gordon Brown’s reputation and standing. For this is along the lines of what Britain has done and, no doubt, in a very short time it will be called “the Brown plan”. What greater validation, it will be argued, can…

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Spread punters flee the Tories

Spread punters flee the Tories

The latest prices suggest an overall Tory majority of just 26 seats After a morning of considerable activity on the commons seats spread betting markets there’s been a sharp move against the Tories and towards Labour as punters reappraise the new situation following the bank bail-out and how it is being viewed both in the UK and overseas. Only two of the three main markets – Sporting Index and Spreadfair – have been open this morning. IG – which used…

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Is this the man who’ll confirm the Labour come-back?

Is this the man who’ll confirm the Labour come-back?

Should you be taking the 100/30 against Labour at Glenrothes? By any normal standards Labour should be on target to hold on to the safe seat of Glenrothes in the by election on November 6th. This is the constituency that adjoins Gordon’s in Fife, the candidate is the head of Brown’s old school, and we have seen a big resurgence for the party in the national opinion polls. In the 2005 general election Labour romped home with 51.9% of the…

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Can McCain get voters to like him in the final debate?

Can McCain get voters to like him in the final debate?

Should we believe a word the instant pundits say on the night? The general view of the pundits after the first presidential debate last month was that McCain had probably won. He’d made his arguments better and many of the “experts” were ready to pronounce him the instant winner. That’s not how it played out in the polls and since that first encounter the movement has all been one way – to the young black Senator from Illinois. Almost the…

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