What should Labour do about those who were drawn to Tony? One of the great polling developments of the past two years is that the three telephone firms that use past vote weighting are now providing data so you can see what those who said they voted for the main parties at the last general election plan to do at the next one. I’ve extracted the above numbers from the latest ComRes, ICM and Populus surveys and have sought to…
Hills make Labour odds-on at Glenrothes The bookie says they have not taken any bets on the SNP winning the seat since Brown campaigned there at the weekend. The firm has Labour at 10/11 to win the seat, with the SNP marginal favourites at 4/5. The Hills Labour price is pretty mean. Just go to the round-up of live prices in the other Glenrothes betting and you can get the party at 5/4. Obama 19% ahead amongst early voters. The…
Is the environment only something we care about when we are prosperous? The chart above is from the latest Ipsos-MORI and shows responses to the firm’s unprompted “What do you thing are the main/important issues facing Britain today” which they have been asking in exactly the same way for more than two decades. As can be expected the current top topic raised by respondents was the economy. But just look at the way “green” concerns have been declining. When your…
Should spread punters now be buying Labour? There’s a new ComRes poll out for the Independent which could make worrying reading for the Tories. Although the margin over Labour is down by just one point the last ComRes poll was showing the worst figures for the Tories of all the pollsters. As ever the Independent’s report of its poll is highly misleading because the comparisons it uses are with the last survey it published – not the last survey by…
Will those in power get the blame or will they be seen as offering stability? Another week opens with volatility on the stock markets round the world and it’s almost as though this has become the new norm. We seem to be getting used to it and it isn’t quite dominating the headlines and bulletins in the way that it was. But what’s going to be the impact on political structures and the political process? Are, for instance, we going…
What can McCain-Palin do in the final few days? As we enter the final week of the 2008 US White House race newspapers right across the night are coming out for one candidate or the other. And there’s one today which will give extra pleasure to the Obama camp – from the leading publication in the state where Sarah Palin is governor, Alaska. This is how the Anchorage Daily News sees it: “..Gov. Palin’s nomination clearly alters the landscape for…
Should you be taking the 7/4 on a Labour hold? On the face of it the mathematics are on the SNP’s side in the Glenrothes by election which takes place a week on Thursday. Just three months ago the party took the Labour stronghold of Glasgow East with a 22.5% swing and on top that it holds the seat in Holyrood. So the 14.3% Glenrothes swing target is much lower in comparison which is probably the reason that ever since…
Talent show host’s party takes second place in Lithuania Following live election results in the likes of Austria and Canada is one thing, but it has to be admitted that Lithuania isn’t generally one of the 25 or so countries that I try to keep an eye on. However, it caught my attention that the party securing second place in the first round of the country’s general election a fortnight ago (the run-off round is today), the National Resurrection Party,…