But Brown gets a poll boost over Miliband The general picture from the monthly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is one of little change although as ever we have the paper seeking to compare its latest numbers with its last poll rather than the last poll from the firm. The new shares with changes on a week ago are: CON 45% (-1): LAB 25% (-1): LD 18% (+1) – so Labour’s position continues to be dire and if these…
What is dictating McCain’s media strategy? In the advertising war waging across the water, John McCain is positively hammering Barack Obama. The Arizona Senator has ploughed significant money into attacking his counterpart from Illinois on a number of fronts; from his advice on inflating tyres to his ‘celebrity’ status, apparently comparable to that of Paris Hilton and Britney Spears. Two elements of his campaign’s assault on Obama have raised eyebrows. Firstly, why is McCain criticising Obama on such spurious grounds…
Is it just a photo-shop job? The above picture has appeared on the FiveThreeEight site and seems to show Obama’s campaign jet with the name of Ann Veneman as the running mate. Whether this is a clever photo-shop job or the real thing I do not know. Ann Veneman is a former member of Bush’s cabinet and is currently Director-General of UNICEF. In 2004 the first indication that John Edwards was going to be Kerry’s running mate came when someone…
Is this the way to minimise another humiliating defeat? Â The Guardian writer Martin Kettle is one of many commentators to say that the timing of the Glenrothes by-election would be a major factor in determining whether or not Brown lives to fight another day. Since the death of John MacDougall, the Labour majority of 10,664 has been assessed and found to be unsafe in the face of the likely challenge of the SNP. It requires a smaller swing than…
Or will the move just highlight the slowness of the government’s response? In what appears to be a highly unusual move for an opposition leader it’s been announced that David Cameron is to fly out to the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, tomorrow to meet political leaders. The move seems designed to show solidarity and international support for a government and country that must have felt very isolated in the past few days. On the domestic front Cameron’s move will highlight the…
Is it worth following the university “experts” or the punters? Back in November 2006 the body for politics academics in Britain’s universities, the Political Studies Association, commissioned a MORI poll to find our how their members viewed the then political situation and the prospects for the parties. At the time the betting markets had the hung parliament option as the most likely general election outcome and the split in the “most seats” betting was CON 55%-LAB 45%. The latest polls…
Could the Clintons “hog” the convention limelight? The big overnight news is that Hillary’s name will be going forward to a roll call vote on the Tuesday leaving open the remote possibility that she could still win. The Obama team has agreed to this as a means of keeping some of the most ardent Hillary supporters on board. About 45% of the delegates are for Hillary and the big danger for Obama is that the media could build this up…
What do we think of “The Fink’s” thesis? There’s an interesting piece on Times Online today by Daniel Finkelstein who argues that in every general election over the past 80 years the voters have chosen the party that was most right to run the country at the time. He writes: “The proposition is that in every contest in these last 80 years the party that was more fit to govern has been victorious. Sometimes both of the main offerings were…