Could the announcement go down like a damp squib?

The circumstantial evidence overnight seems to suggest that Obama is about to announce that Joe Biden has been selected as his running mate. Certainly that’s what punters think and as I write he’s tightened to 1/4 on Betfair.

The chart above shows the implied probability of the three key players based on their latest UK betting odds.

The one thing I cannot understand is why Obama has waited for so long before making an announcement.

Fred Barbash on the respected Politico site thinks that what he calls “Obama’s striptease” might have been a mistake. Firstly it directs attention from the main nominee on the weekend before the convention and what’s seen as a “..safe but unsexy choice—might prove deflating.”

Still there might just be a surprise after all. Hopefully we should know today.

Mike Smithson