What record will be broken later today?

John Rentoul has news on his blog that there is a significant poll to be published in the Independent on Sunday, expected from ComRes later today.

He writes:

“We have a ComRes poll in The Independent on Sunday tomorrow. Another record will be broken. We have also asked people whether they agree or disagree with the following statements:

Britain should never have become involved in Iraq

British troops should be withdrawn from Iraq as soon as possible

The Labour Party will lose the next election regardless of who leads it

A Conservative government would be more effective against knife crime than the present administration

Details on Open House, and full details on the ComRes website, later today.”

I would suggest that the ‘record’ must either be Labour at a historic low, the Conservatives at a record high, and/or a record lead for David Cameron’s Conservative Party over the government.

Either way, this must surely have an impact on the Commons Spread markets, not to mention the implied odds of Labour being the largest party, which as Mike Smithson noted here were sat at a reasonably healthy (if not suspiciously optimistic) 28%.

Keep tuned to pb.com…

UPDATE at 17:08: The link now indicates that the poll results are (with comparison to the last IoS ComRes poll) –

Con 45% (+1)
Lab 24% (-2)
LibDem 16% (-1)
Green 5% (+3)
Other 9% (-2)

The 21-point lead is the highest the Tories have ever recorded with ComRes, and 24% is the lowest Labour score they have ever reported either.

The other striking feature is the massive growth in Green Party support – from 2% to 5% – which must attract questions as to what has prompted this.

The announcement can be found here

Morus