Could Miss Great Britain affect the by election outcome? One of the “other” candidates who might have an impact on Crewe and Nantwich is Gemma Garrett – Miss Great Britain. On the face of it the move seems like a PR stunt designed to boost her profile but, to her credit, she has started to campaign and has already got into a spat with Labour. Gemma says she is about “bringing beauty into politics and turning back the tide of…
Surely it’s time for the curtain to close on the Dimbleby era? Just under a fortnight ago I had a rant about the woeful inadequacies of the BBC’s election coverage and many others have joined the criticism. The antics of Jeremy Vine have been the main focus but these were singled out as an example that something is going badly wrong. Since then we have two more impressive US primary election nights on CNN and the more you see their…
C&N punters mount their own U-turn Yesterday evening, less than two hours after Darling’s commons statement on the tax U-turn I published a chart here under the headline “Darling gives Labour a boost in the Crewe betting“. This has been picked up in the media and on a number of other sites and presented as an instant verdict on what Brown and Darling did yesterday. Well after consideration the markets have returned to almost exactly where they were 24 hours…
But do these final primaries matter at all? After her expected huge victory in the predominantly white working class state of West Virginia Hillary Clinton was in upbeat mood overnight and made it clear that she is still striving to become the next president. This is her biggest victory so far yet the mood of the commentators was that it was irrelevant. Only 28 delegates were at stake, the outcome had been widely predicted, and Obama’s quiet campaign amongst the…
..Or have we passed the game-changing moment? Another Tuesday evening and another primary in the race for the Democratic nomination. This time it’s in West Virginia which decides the fate of 28 delegates. The state’s demographics look good for former First Lady and it’s possible that she could finish up in the 60s with Obama down in the 20s. But will it matter? For it’s beginning to look as though last Tuesday’s North Carolina and Indiana primaries finally closed the…
Could the revised tax plan stem the Tory surge? The chart shows the changes in the Labour betting price for Crewe and Nantwich, expressed as an implied probability, during a day which has seen the government trying to get out of the hole it has dug itself into over the 10% tax rate. Clearly Brown and his team were thinking of next week’s election when they decided to make the statement to try to shoot this particular fox. The only…
Dealing with the ex-Labour supporters who said they “didn’t know” At last! We now have the full data from the ICM Crewe and Nantwich by-election poll and I have reproduced the most interesting feature above – how the original numbers produced a 12% lead with the Tories on 47% and what happened when they went through the “spiral of silence adjuster”. For what has happened here is that ICM has followed its standard practice and has allocated half of the…
crewe.tv This could be a good strategy to get the vote out? Labour’s core strategy in Crewe and Nantwich to portray their main opponent as a “Tory Toff” has attracted a lot of criticism and has even proved a bit too rich for some contributors to LabourHome. The sight, as above, of Labour activists seeking to follow the Tory candidate dressed up as “Toffs” and the emphasis on his background in campaign leaflets has been the principle theme of the…