Is there anything that Brown can do to turn things round? The May ICM national voting intention survey for the Guardian is just out and records what is the firm’s biggest Labour deficit of modern times – and is in line with the trend of other recent polls. The figures, with changes on the last ICM poll at the end of April are: CON 41% (+2): LAB (-2): LD 22% (+2). The changes reflected in the chart above are from…
How much of this is approved by Gordon? With just over two days of the Crewe and Nantwich this is the latest from the Labour in its increasingly desperate bid to hold on to the seat. For after the controversy over the Toff campaign there is a new theme for the final period which is going to make a lot of people associated with the party feel quite uncomfortable. Its attitude to human rights and its view of how the…
Is John Denham the person who can retain Labour’s English supporters? Because of Gordon Brown’s tendency to make most of the government’s announcements himself we rarely get a chance to see ministers like the Innovation and Universities Secretary, John Denham, in action. Doing a video search of BBC news and you realise how rarely he’s given a chance to appear on television. Yet from looking at the five minutes clip above from this year’s BBC’s local election results programme you…
Given the dramatic changes we are seeing I thought it might be a good moment to look back to the first Saturday in October when Gordon recorded his famous interview with Andrew Marr. It was this, it will be recalled, that was Downing Street’s way of ending the speculation about an early November 2007 general election and followed a week when the Tories had begun to start their recovery in the polls. Gordon looks a bit better in the recording…
Graphics – News of the World Can it get any worse for Gordon? Reproduced above are the graphics that appear in this morning’s News of the World showing the key numbers from its ICM survey of Crewe and Nantwich voter ahead of next Thursday’s crucial by election. Given that a week ago the same pollster was reporting a margin of 4% for the Tories it is very hard to see how any other result than an emphatic victory by Cameron’s…
Can Crewe’s loss be put down to McCabe’s tactics not the PM? Even assiduous PBers with a great interest in politics will probably not recognise the man on Gordon’s left in the picture – but he is Steve McCabe – a Glaswegian trade union official turned Birmingham Labour MP who is running his party’s campaign in Crewe and Nantwich. He’s also a government whip. It is McCabe who is responsible for the “Toff” attacks on the Tory candidate that has…
More gloom for Gordon On an evening when several polls are expected the first one with hard information is just coming in. For the Sunday Times tomorrow YouGov reports the following shares with comparisons from the Sun YouGov survey taken last week. CON 45%(-4): LAB 25% (+2): LD 18% (+1) Even though this represents a substantial swingback to the government David Cameron, I’m sure, will be happy with a 20% margin. Other numbers from YouGov have Brown’s personal ratings at…
Crewe TV Iain Dale is reporting on his site that a new poll on the by election has the Conservatives with an 8% lead. Iain does not know the pollster or who commissioned it. The figures Iain reports are:- CON 45%: LAB 37%: LD 14% The only other C&N poll was by ICM last weekend which had headline figures of CON 43% Lab 39%: LD 16%. I had a whisper that there was possibly going to be another ICM poll…