Three polls that shake Labour to the core

Three polls that shake Labour to the core

Graphics – News of the World

    Can it get any worse for Gordon?

Reproduced above are the graphics that appear in this morning’s News of the World showing the key numbers from its ICM survey of Crewe and Nantwich voter ahead of next Thursday’s crucial by election.

Given that a week ago the same pollster was reporting a margin of 4% for the Tories it is very hard to see how any other result than an emphatic victory by Cameron’s party is going to be possible. The response to the £2.7bn tax package seem particularly damning.

As well as being bad news for Labour the ICM survey could impede Lib Dem efforts in the seat. Clegg’s party has thrown an enormous amount at C&N and this does not seem to be bearing fruit. The one viable strategy left, which will be played hard, is to go to Labour supporters to say that a Lib Dem vote is the only way of stopping the Tories.

The betting markets have reacted as though the Crewe and Nantwich result is now a near certainty. Betfair’s Tory price has tightened to just 0.11/1. So a bet of £100 will produce a profit of just £11.

The other two polls to be published were on national general election voting intention and both had Labour in the mid 20s. ComRes in the Independent on Sunday was the last one to appear and has with changes on the April poll CON 43%(+3): LAB 26%(nc): LD 19%(-1). This is the biggest ever Conservative lead that the pollster has recorded.

The ComRes figures are in the same area as YouGov for the Sunday Times which has, with changes on the last survey by the firm nine days ago – CON 45%(-4): LAB 25%(+2): LD 18%(+1).

The totality of this must be particularly worrying for Labour strategists and the hundreds of MPs who face the prospect of losing their seats, salaries and allowances.

The question is whether there is anything that Gordon can do to reverse the tide? For in the past fews days he has added £2.7m £2.7bn to the national debt to fund the tax changes, put forward all his developing policy ideas into the so-called “draft Queen’s Speech” and had a media blitz on a scale that we have not seen before.

This story will continue…..

Mike Smithson

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