Is it time to start betting on a Conservative majority?

Con 43 (+6), Lab 32 (nc), Lib Dem 18 (-3)

A poll by ICM in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph gives the Conservatives an 11-point lead, up six since the previous poll in January. The Telegraph notes that such a result could give a 40-seat majority for Cameron under FPTP, but under a putative AV-style system this would be reduced to 325 MPs.

On the issue of economic competence, Brown/Darling and Cameron/Osborne are neck and neck, a swing of 3.5% to the Tories since January – 59% of respondents said they have reined in spending over the last year due to the credit crunch.

A couple of questions then:

Is it time to start betting on a Conservative majority? (2.54 on Betfair – I think a 2010 election at 1.81 and Tories most seats at 1.67 are very good value.) Prices are here.

How likely is it that Labour will change the voting system before the next election? Is what we’ve heard so far simply kite-flying, or is there a real possibility of it happening?

Final note from the Guest Editor

Just to say special thanks to Sean Fear, PtP and Morus for their contributions this week, and of course Mike who has produced a large number of articles despite being on holiday. Many thanks to all of you for your comments, and as mentioned before, I will be producing a regular Sunday evening slot on international politics.

To John O, AH Matlock, Tyson, and other interested parties – the article on Italy will be out around 5pm tomorrow. I’ve written the piece but Andrea has kindly “peer-reviewed” it and I have incorporated his comments – and he hopes to be doing a follow-up article after the elections.

Cheers and all the very best,

Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”

Guest Editor