Is he really the man the Democrats fear most?

It was back in mid-August that we first looked at the chances of GOP contender and former Governor of Arkansas, Mick Huckabee. At the time the unique element in his background was that he was born and brought up in the same small town as Bill Clinton.

Since then Huckabee, whose dramatic slimming story (see picture), has endeared him to many in the most obese country in the world, has gone from strength to strength. The above chart showing his price expressed as an implied probability illustrates the progress that he has made.

In the summer I suggested that a small Huckabee punt at the then 60/1 price seemed like a value bet which when combined with my tip at 50/1 on Obama in May 2005 means that this White House Race is already looking very profitable.

Today an article in the Washington Post suggests that a Huckabee nomination is the one that many Democrats are coming to fear most. There’s a long way to go, of course, but if he does win in Iowa, as the polls are suggesting then it could provide the springboard for the rest of the campaign.

Since my August article I’ve put a bit more on him with the Spreadfair 0-10-25 spread market. Other prices are here.

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Mike Smithson