Labour drop to an amazing 27%

On the day that Labour’s general secretary had to resign over donation handling news is coming through of another terrible polling blow to Brown and his party.

According to Iain Dale the November survey by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent has these figures with comparisons on a month ago – CON 40% (-1): LAB 27% (-6): LD 18% (+2)

Needless to say this is the biggest Tory lead that’s been recorded by ComRes ever. Back in April the firm had Labour on a similar level of 27% but in that poll the Tories were only on 36%.

It should be noted that the methodology that the firm uses, particularly the past vote weighting formula that it follows, is the least favourable to Labour of all the pollsters.

Fieldwork took place over the weekend after an awful week of bad news for the party which has continued today.

The Anthony Wells calculator suggests that these figures would produce a Commons of CON 354: LAB 224: LD 42: OTH 30 seats. Martin Baxter Electoral Calculus produces CON 357: LAB 217: LD 45 seats

I’ve started betting on the Tories again on the commons spread markets.

UPDATE 2115 I have just had confirmation of the poll from the boss of ComRes – Andrew Hawkins. He tells me that the last survey which showed such a big Tory lead was a MORI poll for The Times in August 1988, when Margaret Thatcher was still Prime Minister and her party enjoyed a 14-point advantage..

Mike Smithson