What’s the chance of either Dave or Gord being ousted? One of the bets I placed in the immediate aftermath of the Brown “no election” declaration was in Betfair’s “Next General Election – party leaders†market. Here you have to predict which of the Ming, Gord and Dave will still be there on polling day and at the time I suggested betting against, by laying, all three still being in post. That bet seemed to offer the most options and…
A guest article by Blair Freebairn The Pirahã tribe of the Amazon has words for one, two and many. Number-wise that’s it. The count for an STV Pirahã election would be fun. The Romans didn’t have the digit zero and their arithmetic was mind-bogglingly horrible; yet imperial Rome seemed to muddle through. Yet all languages seem to have the same basic 10 words for colours. Maps have been around since before writing let alone number systems. We are not hard…
Ming’s preferred choice said to be not running Kennedy “unlikely to run” Cable won’t stand – “an older candidate is not electable” BBC says Kramer and Davey have ruled themselves out Webb says he has sufficient signatures Hemming reportedly has 5 out of the 7 nominations needed The race to succeed Ming is now taking shape, and unless John Hemming can secure the required seven signatures from fellow MPs, it’s starting to look less likely that anyone will enter the…
Cable takes Ming’s place Live coverage available here. Will Brown receive another mauling from Cameron and how will Cable fare? Paul Maggs “Double Carpet” Guest Editor Mike Smithson returns tomorrow Paul Maggs runs The Election Game – click on the logo to email for more information.
Could his actions last time undermine his campaign? People have asked me repeatedly who I will back in this contest? My answer is that I’ll support whoever stands the best chance of stopping Nick Clegg who I fear could be the fourth problematical Lib Dem leader in a row. A serious challenge that he will have to surmount, and which his opponents are already starting to exploit, is that he lacked the bottle to put himself forward in 2006 and…
Switzerland votes on Sunday in its most bitter election for decades UK update at end of article Swiss politics has often been seen as boring (to put it unkindly), although “stable” might be a more diplomatic term. Like Cuba, there was no change in the party makeup of the government between 1959 and 2003 – and if a party’s vote share moved by 2% from one election to the next in the 1970s or 80s that was a lot. As…
Why was Huhne favourite for so long last time? In my book, The Political Punter I relate in some detail some of the betting market moves during the 2006 Lib Dem leadership contest. It will be recalled that the big surprise was how the money was going on Chris Huhne, who was then relatively unknown and at the time had then been an MP for less than a year. For several weeks he was the odds-on favourite. One clue comes…
Could he be the Lib Dems’ Alex Salmond? Nominations open today for the race to succeed Ming as Lib Dem leader and will close on 31st October. (Voting closes 15th December with the winner unveiled two days later.) So far, the only news among possible runners is that Simon Hughes won’t be standing. Much of the attention, and cash in the markets, has been focused on Nick Clegg (1.57 on Betfair) and last time’s runner-up Chris Huhne (currently trading at…