The spread betting markets are unmoved

For what must almost certainly be the first time ever Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus is putting the Lib Dems on zero seats for the next general election.

This is based on feeding his weighted average of recent polls into his commons seat calculator. The result appears above.

So if you believe it there’s a fortune to be made on the spread betting markets. The latest Lib Dem Spreadfair prices are SELL 46.5 seats and BUY 49.5 seats. If the buy price moves just a couple of notches I might go into the market.

For what Martin’s formula does not take into account is the fact the LD incumbents are pretty difficult to shift.

Mike Smithson