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Sean Fear’s Friday slot Several contributors to this site have drawn attention to the fact that there has been no evidence that the improvement in Labour’s polling position, since Brown became Prime Minister, has not fed through into local election results. They are quite correct. There have been 17 seats in England that have been contested by all three main parties since the start of July, which were last contested in 2006 or 2007, when the Conservatives had a very…

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Today’s stories at home and abroad A selection of stories today that may be of interest: A cross-party group of MPs has said “they are confident” that a new campaign will pressure Gordon into holding a referendum on the EU Treaty – are they right? The TUC leader Brendan Barber has warned that Brown’s pay deal for public sector workers could cost him a “political price”; … and Johan Eliasch, who stepped down as the Conservatives’ deputy treasurer, is set…

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A guest article by Harry Hayfield Every election there is always a discussion about the benchmark seats, but which seats will come to the fore at the next election? Given that based on the new boundaries Labour would have an overall majority (on no swing at all) of 48, it seems fair to assume that those benchmarks would be: Labour majority of 100, Lab majority of 50, Lab hung parliament, a “well hung” parliament (both Con and Lab on the…

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Have the media’s critical faculties been restored? It seems now like it comes from a different age but the above was how that normally level-headed paper, the Guardian, was reporting British politics less than a month ago. To have equated the bungled and amateurish attack on Glasgow airport, the consequences of a couple of heavy rain-storms and a few cows getting a disease with, say, Churchill’s first month in May 1940 was just plain silly. The journalist who wrote such…

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Will summer 2007 prove to be his high-water mark? It’s a moot point as to whether the honeymoon is finally over, but with the rash of recent polls showing Labour’s lead in the 0-3 point range, it’s generally accepted that the Brown bounce is fading at best (although the Times did note yesterday that Labour are still about 5 points higher than before his arrival). Certainly the polls showing Labour with solid leads of up to 10 points during the…

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To help ease the pressure on the server, please continue today’s discussions here. Many thanks Paul Maggs “Double Carpet” Guest Editor

Will it be time for the “Daves” soon? More confirmation that the Brown Bounce is over with a Populus poll in the Times today which gives Labour just a 1-point lead. Headline figures are Labour 37, Conservatives 36, Lib Dems 18. For anyone who’s still tempted with a 2007 election, it’s currently available at 5.5 on Betfair (9/2 in “old money”). Meanwhile, former Conservative deputy leader Michael Ancram has warned against the party making “vacuous reforms” – are there any…

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