The money goes on the Brown bounce being sustained

Even though today’s ICM poll in the Guardian, reported in the previous thread, shows a one point drop in Labour’s lead the sentiment on the betting markets is moving towards Labour being returned with an overall majority for an unprecedented fourth term.

On the Cantor Spreadfair commons seat market this morning prices are CON 252-255.7: LAB 307.2-310.4: LD 48.1-54 seats. So the mid-point in the Labour spread is nearly 309 seats or just sixteen short of an overall majority.

The picture’s the same on Betfair’s general election outcome market. The chart, based on betting odds presented as implied probabilities, shows the big changes that have taken place this year. This morning the no overall majority price is 1.42/1 with Labour tightening to 1.52.

If the polls continue to show Labour with a lead of 6% or more then it cannot be long before Brown being returned with an overall majority becomes the favoured outcome.

Given how polls drive the market it’s important to note that we are in for a spate of surveys in the next week and then after that, as we move into August, we’ll go through the usual summer polling famine.

My current spread position is a Labour buy at 307 seats.

Mike Smithson