Will the named leader issue be tested in Ealing Southall?

Will the named leader issue be tested in Ealing Southall?

ICM NOTW jul 07 named.JPG

    Is this good news for Dave from ICM?

This is from the detailed data that ICM has just made available from the News of the World part of the survey that was published on Sunday.

The results from the question ” Now that Gordon Brown has taken over, and faces David Cameron for the Conservatives and Ming Campbell for the Liberal Democrats, do you feel that you are becoming warmer to the idea of supporting…?” have been reported in some parts of the media as though it was an ICM voting intention question. It wasn’t and the pollster has taken the unusual step of issuing a warning so that the position can be clarified.

    Regular visitors will know that I have long observed that when you link the Tory leader’s name to his party then it gets better polling results. Brand Cameron is apparently more popular than Brand Conservative.

Well this latest data, based on the responses of those who told the pollster that they voted for one of the three main parties in 2005, appears to underline the point. As can be seen from the table Cameron, on this specific question, is retaining much more support from those who voted Tory last time than either Brown or Campbell are getting from Labour and Lib Dems voters. The Tories are also doing much better with cross-overs.

On Thursday we could see whether there is something in this. For in Ealing Southall Tony Lit is described on the ballot paper as being from “David Cameron’s Conservatives”. Will this have an impact? It’s hard to say but putting the leader’s name there in polling question does seem to enhance the response.

If Lit does well then maybe the Tories will use this branding elsewhere. And if it doesn’t….?

Latest Southall betting is here.

Mike Smithson

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