Could now be the moment to sell Labour?

Over the past six months I’ve been trying to make money on the general election spread markets by buying and selling the number of Labour seats. The art is to try to anticipate the polls because they drive punter sentiment.

And what drives the polls, of course, is the media and we have just gone through almost two months when Labour has been almost the only story in town. Once the novelty of having a politcal world without Blair has worn off what’s going to happen to public opinion?

The above table, reproduced from UK Polling Report shows the move to Labour with the blip at the end of May when the Tory grammar school row was making the news. The effect, as we can see was a boost in the party’s ratings to a 6% lead.

All this supports my pet theory that the Tories poll well the more Cameron is making the headlines – even if the coverage is negative.

So we’ll get a clearer view of the scale of the Brown bounce when Cameron is back on the telly again. In a general election campaign, of course, both parties get equal TV time.

In the meantime I’m watching the spread markets very closely. I’ve set the 290 seat point as the trigger for when I’ll sell Labour.

UPDATE: I should have added that this is not a prediction for the general election but my gamble on how I think the markets will move in the next few months. With spread betting, if you have been right about the trends, you can pocket your profits years before the event takes place.

Mike Smithson