Could there be a shock west of Offa’s Dyke as well? While all the focus for the May 3rd elections has been on the possibility of an SNP win in Scotland is there a possibility that Labour’s position might not be as secure in Wales as the betting and the limited number of polls have suggested? Certainly, unlike Scotland, the battle for the Welsh Assembly has failed to attract the interest of punters, as the above Betfair prices show, with…
Last Thursday I suggested that a good French election bet was to buy Royal on the Spreadfair 10-25 spread market. This gives 10 points to the runner-up and 25 points to the ultimate winner. I bought at the 10 level taking what proved to be the right gamble that she would make the second round. This means that the bet cannot be a loser. If Sego loses I break even. If Sego wins I make 15 times my stake level…
The Guardian steps up the rhetoric against a Brown coronation? The feature of its ICM poll that the Guardian focuses on this morning is the hugely negative response to questions about whether Gordon Brown should take over from Tony Blair unopposed. Under the heading “When in doubt, trust the voters” the paper’s main leader notes “Many Labour people have persuaded themselves that a leadership contest to succeed Tony Blair would not be, in that dreadful word so beloved of party…
Big boost for Lib Dems in latest ICM poll The ICM April survey for the Guardian tomorrow is just out and the headline figures show a reduction in the Tory lead and a three point increase in the Lib Dem share. The totals with changes on last month are: CON 37%(-4): LAB 30% (-1): LD 21% (+3). Of the minor parties both UKIP and the Greens are on 2%. There was also a drop in the Tory lead when voters…
Have PBers been too good for them? IG Index told me this morning that they were closing their BrandIndex spread market on the changing popularity of politicians which has been operation since January. Punters sought to guess whether a selection of politicians would go up or down and “buy” or “sell” accordingly. The ratings were based on YouGov’s daily BrandIndex surveys of thousands of members of its pollution panel. Each week for the site a little group led by Peter…
New poll suggests the Tories could get a majority of 6 seats The April poll by Communicate Research for the Independent this morning has some bleak news for Labour as it prepares for next week’s elections and the coming leadership change. For the survey reports the following with changes on last month – CON 36%(+1): LAB 27%(-4): LD 22%(+2). The detailed data, which helpfully is published this morning as well (other pollsters please note), reports shares for the minor parties…
Mister Chip cruises home in 1st Round Competition Following the drama of the first round of the French Presidential election, the results of the competition on pb.com can now be confirmed. Strictly speaking the contest will await ratification of the election results by the Constitutional Council, but the Interior Ministry figures would have to be very inaccurate to change the outcome of the competition, and this is extremely unlikely to be the case. Given the first round results of Sarkzoy…
It’s a two thread morning on PBC With such a lot of developments affecting political betting markets going on both in the UK and across the Channel there are two threads this morning. Gordon Brown is on the previous one. The above table, adapted from Wikipedia, shows the results of four telephone surveys that were taken last night after the first round results were known. Interestingly the two pollsters that most under-estimated Royal ahead of yesterday’s election are showing the…