Last Thursday I suggested that a good French election bet was to buy Royal on the Spreadfair 10-25 spread market. This gives 10 points to the runner-up and 25 points to the ultimate winner.
I bought at the 10 level taking what proved to be the right gamble that she would make the second round. This means that the bet cannot be a loser. If Sego loses I break even. If Sego wins I make 15 times my stake level as profit.
The question I now face is whether to close the bet down at the current 13 level making a sure profit now of 3 times my stake or do I hang in to a week on Sunday and hope to get the full amount.
- Which way will the polls go? Does Sego still have a chance?
My knowledge of French polling is limited and certainly at the 49-51 splits there must be a chance.
There’s also the gender issue. Will France vote for a woman? In other countries when faced with the prospect of a female leader for the first time voters have tended to back the woman.
My instinct is to stay with the bet but to keep watching it closely.