Why Aren’t the Conservatives Doing Better? This may seem an odd question to ask at a time when the Conservative Party has enjoyed several years of steady advance in local government, and now holds almost 40% of council seats in Great Britain, for the first time since 1987. The answer, I think, is really the mirror of my article of last week “The Strange Death of Labour England.†In previous years of local government success, the Conservatives could expect to…
Could the budget “masterstroke” have scuppered Gordon’s chances? What a difference two days make? After all the cheers from his fellow Labour MPs on Wednesday there’s a massive blow to Brown and his party from YouGov in the Daily Telegraph this morning. For in the first poll since the budget there is a 2% increase in the Tory lead. These are the figures compared with the last survey from the internet pollster – CON 39% (+1): LAB 31% (-1): LD…
Can Gordon ignore the attacks from the left? With the Brown betting price for Labour leader now moving to 0.2/1 there’s a sharp attack on his strategy from someone who, until now, was one of the Chancellor’s biggest and most influential media supporters – Polly Toynbee of the Guardian. Part of her piece is reproduced above (click on it to read the whole article) and her point can be summed up in on sentence – “For the sake of a…
Is he putting his wife’s health first? John Edwards, the Democrat VP candidate in 2004, is holding a press conference within the next hour amidst reports that he is planning to quit the race to win his party’s nomination for the 2008 race because of his wife’s health. His betting price has started to ease and now stands at about 11/1. In recent months Edwards has been working very hard in Iowa and New Hampshire – which are amongst the…
Is it going to help or hinder him in his quest for the top job? Our chart shows the betting price on Gordon Brown for the Labour leadership over the past three days and reflects the very mixed feelings there are amongst punters. For as can be seen there has been a tightening on the Brown price but he is still not quite as firm a favourite as he was on Monday before the Turnbull “Brown like Stalin” story broke….
Will the income tax move turn the ratings round – and will it last? After going through some pretty torrid times in recent weeks Labour must be feeling pretty chipper about Gordon Brown’s eleventh budget and must be hoping that there will be a reversal in the polls. For the announcement of the 20% basic tax rate came as a real shock and will be leading the bulletins and much of the news coverage for the rest of the day….
Can Brown put the polls and the Turnbull attack behind him? After what the Times is calling “Black Tuesday for the Chancellor” Gordon has a chance this afternoon to steady the nerves of his party and put his bid for the leadership beyond doubt. For the budget is one of those great set-piece parliamentary occasions and is the only time during the year when the Chancellor and the leader of the opposition face each other across the chamber. No doubt…
Normal service resumed The call of the Cheltenham Festival came too soon and loud for me to produce a piece last week but I trust that you are now all fully aware that, following on from the minor hiccup the previous week, we took extreme retribution on IG and more than doubled our profits to date with a remarkable 11.3 profit (£113 to a £10 stake). Week ended 8th March 2007 Tony Blair – Buy 1 point at 55.0 Score…