What are the chances of McDonnell running and coming second?

# What are the chances of McDonnell running and coming second?

The spread betting firm, Cantor Spreadfair, have an interesting market on the Labour leadership which offers a neat profit opportunity on John McDonnnell, if you think he’s going to run and come in second.

The firm has created a spread market so that 25pts awarded to the next Labour Party leader and 10pts to the runner up. All others will settle at 0pts. If there is no contest then 25pts are awarded to the next permanent leader and 0 pts to all remaining candidates.

Currently John McDonnell, the only MP to declare that he is a runner, is priced at 2.25. So if you were to put a Â£10 stake level buy bet on him the most you could possibly lose is the price – 2.25 * Â£10 = Â£22.50. But if he came in second place then your profit would be Â£100 minus Â£22.50 = Â£77.50.

So you are risking Â£22.50 to make Â£77.50 – which does not seem a bad return if you think that McDonnell will be able to get the required number of nominees and that it will be a straight battle between him and Gordon. In the remote possibility of McDonnell winning your winnings would be Â£227.50.

Mike Smithson