Cameron’s party back at 40% as he demands a post-Blair election With the Tory leader, David Cameron ratcheting up the pressure on Gordon Brown to call an immediate General Election when he becomes leader there’s some good news for his party in the latest poll. ICM’s monthly survey for the Guardian – by far the longest polling series in the UK – puts the Tories back at the 40% level that they were last at in August. The shares, with…
Best of luck from everyone associated with PBC For the past twenty months the discussions on PBC have been enriched by the wit, knowledge, and good judgement of Jack W who posted first on March 25th 2005 and has made a staggering 8,091 separate contributions. We had this message from him yesterday. Jack W says TTFN. I regret to report that this is something of a valedictory post from moi, at least for now I hope. Having seen off lifes…
How good were you at predicting the past 12 months? Less than a fortnight to go and barring anything dramatic like a Tony Blair resignation the only issue still to be resolved in our “Predicting 2006” competition is the December ICM poll which should come out in the next day or so. Looking back on the entries that were posted here almost a year ago it is amazing how positive people were about the prospects for Charles Kennedy who actually…
Could the honours probe blight Labour for months? A report in the Times this morning might, if accurate, dash hopes at Number 10 and in the Labour party that the honours probe could be resolved “by January” – the timing predicted by Assistant Commander Yates in his letter to MPs last month. In an apparent new turn the Times is reporting this morning that the Crown Prosecution Service has advised police to extend their inquiries into “suspected attempts to hamper…
The Chancellor’s price eases as honours-linked stories continue The Sunday papers won’t make pleasant reading this morning at either Number 10 or Number 11 Downing Street as journalists try to get their teeth into what is going on with the honours case and what this means for the Labour succession. For while coverage of Blair’s quizzing might have been limited on the day by initiating a large number of other stories on the day to “bury the bad news” this…
BBC Radio 4’s “World at One” are planning a feature on political betting and PBC during the holiday period – probably during the “slow news” period between Christmas and the New Year. I recorded a longish discussion a couple of days ago on the past twelve months and what’s likely to be coming up in 2007 – “will there be a Brown Bounce and if so will it be sustained?“; “how will French presidential battle turn out?“and “which candidates will…
Rod Crosby asks: “Can we measure the probability of such an outcome?” Electoral System: The first graph has been compiled from Anthony Wells’ data for the new constituency boundaries. For each percentage point the LibDems might reasonably score in the range 15-25%, the outcome of the Election has been calculated for plausible Conservative LEADS ranging from 0-11%. The concept of Swing implies that the difference between the main two parties is important while their absolute level of support is not….
The State of the Parties Since the start of September, there have been 74 local by-elections on principal authorities. Of these, 41 involved the three main parties, competing with each other. Overall, the Conservatives made a net gain of 5 seats, the Liberal Democrats made a net gain of 6, the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland and SNP a gain of 1 each, while Labour made a net loss of 5, Others/Independents made a net loss of 7, and the…