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Month: December 2006

What’s the Sun’s Trevor Kavanagh up to?

What’s the Sun’s Trevor Kavanagh up to?

Should punters take note of his reservations on Brown? For the most stinging criticism of the way Downing Street sought to bury yesterday’s news about Tony Blair’s police interview you need go no further than Trevor Kavanagh in the Sun this morning. For the hugely influential political writer for Rupert Murdoch’s best-selling daily paper has no doubts about the spin operation that Number 10 mounted to try to bury the news and he is really gunning for those involved. This…

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Blair’s “honours” interview takes place – “not under caution”

Blair’s “honours” interview takes place – “not under caution”

Punters now putting money on a later departure The news this afternoon that Prime Minister Tony Blair has been interviewed in the honours probe has sent the Blair laving date markets moving. The fact that he was not interviewed under caution and he was not accompanied by a lawyer is causing punters to take the view that his time at Number 10 will probably go on until the early summer. Latest betting is here. Mike Smithson

Is there any value left in the Obama prices?

Is there any value left in the Obama prices?

How serious a contender is the young African-American? After a quiet five weeks following the mid-term elections US politics has suddenly exploded again with the visit this week by the black contender, Barack Obama, to New Hampshire – the state where traditionally the first primary election of US presidential campaigns takes place. Suddenly everybody is talking up the prospects of the 45 year old Democrat Senator from Illinois and the UK media has now begun to pay attention. Last night…

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So what is happening with Cameron’s ratings?

So what is happening with Cameron’s ratings?

The numbers that will do whatever you want them to do From the chart above it is possible to make just about any case you want over how David Cameron is being perceived. If you want to show that he’s moving up then just make your base point the YouGov July survey and compare with the latest numbers. If you want to show that he’s going down make your base survey February 2006. The selective approach to all sorts of…

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Are the union funding plans a step too far?

Are the union funding plans a step too far?

How will Labour fund itself if the changes go through? It’s beginning to look as though the biggest political fall-out from the “cash/loans for honours” affair is going to be on the way that political parties and future elections are funded. And the latest ideas coming out of the Sir Hayden Phillips inquiry look pretty bad for Labour. For the idea is that every year each of the 3.5 million union members who opt to pay the political levy will…

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A plug for my brother’s new movie

A plug for my brother’s new movie

It’s not about politics but about lies, deceit and facing up to the truth In 2004 my brother, John Smithson, won a BAFTA award for the climbing drama, Touching the Void, which continues to attract interest. This weekend his new movie, Deep Water, is released at selected cinemas throughout the UK. It’s a true story that has many parallels with one or two leading figures in contemporary politics. For in 1966 the yachtsman, Donald Crowhurst, sought to deal with his…

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Populus: BAD for the Tories and Brown – GOOD for Cameron

Populus: BAD for the Tories and Brown – GOOD for Cameron

Why does Cameron’s name lift his party so much? The headline figures in today Populus poll in the Times have the Tories at their lowest point since April and only two points ahead of Labour. The headline figures are with changes on last month: CON 34% (-2): LAB 33% (nc): LD 19% (-1). These will be very disappointing figures for the Tories who only a week ago saw the party with an 8% lead with ICM. One of the factors…

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After 12 months will Cameron finally get caught?

After 12 months will Cameron finally get caught?

Is Gordon’s long chase nearly over? For the whole of the year that David Cameron has been Tory leader there has been one consistent opinion poll finding that has produced a similar outcome whenever it has been asked. To the question of how would you vote if it was Brown’s Labour against Cameron’s Tories and Ming’s Lib Dems the outcome from whichever pollster has asked the question has always been a better position for the Conservatives. Populus for the monthly…

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