Will this woman add further to Labour’s woes?

Will this woman add further to Labour’s woes?

    Make a few bob on the Peter Law seats not being won back?

So far there’s been little interest in the Betfair markets on the June 29th by-elections to fill Blaenau Gwent seats that the former Peter Law used to occupy at Westminster and the Welsh Assembly.

On the face of it the area is a traditional solid Labour strong-hold and the seats should be returning to the party as a matter of course. Peter Law won in May 2005 against the official candidate in protest against an all-women short-list being imposed on the local party.

Law’s former agent, Dai Davis, is running for the Westminster seat while his widow, Trish, is going for the place in Cardiff. A new party called “People’s Voice” has been created and both are likely to be running under this flag. So what are their chances? I think they are quite good.

  • There’s still residual bitterness from what happened last year.
  • The scale of Labour’s challenge can be seen from the General Election vote shares:- Law 58.17%; LAB 32.29%; LIB 4.29%; PC 2.39%; CON 2.31%.
  • Labour invariably has problems getting its support out away from General Elections
  • The linkage that each of the candidates have with the former MP is very strong
  • Labour’s doing much worse nationally now than it was a year ago.
  • For the latest local press round-up on the elections check the excellent by-elections site.

    My assessment is Trish Law will probaby make it to the Welsh Assembly. Dai Davis has a bigger challenge but probably stands a -reasonable chance for the Wetminster seat. Both are worth a punt when there is more liquidity in the markets.

    Mike Smithson

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