Make a few bob on the Peter Law seats not being won back?

So far there’s been little interest in the Betfair markets on the June 29th by-elections to fill Blaenau Gwent seats that the former Peter Law used to occupy at Westminster and the Welsh Assembly.

On the face of it the area is a traditional solid Labour strong-hold and the seats should be returning to the party as a matter of course. Peter Law won in May 2005 against the official candidate in protest against an all-women short-list being imposed on the local party.

Law’s former agent, Dai Davis, is running for the Westminster seat while his widow, Trish, is going for the place in Cardiff. A new party called “People’s Voice” has been created and both are likely to be running under this flag. So what are their chances? I think they are quite good.

There’s still residual bitterness from what happened last year.

The scale of Labour’s challenge can be seen from the General Election vote shares:- Law 58.17%; LAB 32.29%; LIB 4.29%; PC 2.39%; CON 2.31%.

Labour invariably has problems getting its support out away from General Elections

The linkage that each of the candidates have with the former MP is very strong

Labour’s doing much worse nationally now than it was a year ago.

For the latest local press round-up on the elections check the excellent by-elections site.

My assessment is Trish Law will probaby make it to the Welsh Assembly. Dai Davis has a bigger challenge but probably stands a -reasonable chance for the Wetminster seat. Both are worth a punt when there is more liquidity in the markets.

Mike Smithson