It’s 1.08/1 on a Hung Parliament

With the next Lib Dem leader due to be announced this afternoon a new Betfair market has opened on whether the next General Election will result in a hung Parliament.

After pressure from several PB.C regulars the betting exchange has created a market that looks set to be the busiest in the run-up to the next election.

The options are LAB Majority (2.25/1) CON Majority (3.1/1) HUNG parliament (1.08/1). At this stage just after a betting exchange market has been launched little should be read into the opening prices. Very little money has been placed and few punters know about it.

With the possible loss of Labour seats in the boundary revisions and the Tory surge that suggests that it has broken through the 33% ceiling for the the first time in 13 years the hung parliament option probably justifies its favourite rating. A lot depends on the Lib Dem because while the Tories have been relatively constant in the polls their position in relation to Labour is likely to be determined by how well the Huhne/Campbell party does.

The aggregate Lib Dem – Labour figure in almost all of the polls since Cameron was elected has been at 54-55%. If that remains and the new leader can keep the Lib Dems at 20% or more than it’s hard to see how Labour can maintain a majority.

Meanwhile the Lib Dem betting has seen a huge surge towards Ming Campbell where the price tightened at one stage to less than 0.3/1. This might have been promoted by Guido’s poll aggregate of the two private YouGov surveys that were carried out as the ballot packs were arriving at the home of members.

Given that the there was a huge over-lap, maybe more than 80%, amongst those Lib Dems who took part in the polls I am not convinced by the Guido approach. Individual members who were polled for the surveys did change their mind in those few days as one or two contributors on the site have stated.

I stick with my prediction that today’s outcome is too close to call though, if pressed I think that Huhne has just done it.

I win the same whatever. There’s little doubt that the momentum was with him as the ballot packs were arriving and I think that his expected deficit on the second preferences of Hughes voters will be nearer to the second YouGov poll – not the first.

Politicalbetting was featured quite heavily in Newsnight’s report on the leadership contest at the start of last night’s programme – available to watch here.

In the PB.C competition – organised by Paul Maggs – 59% of respondents predict that Ming Campbell will be the new leader, with 36% backing Chris Huhne to win, and Simon Hughes trailing in a poor third with just 5%.

Mike Smithson