Time to back Ming at 2/1

What is happening on the Lib Dem leadership betting markets? After a week when the prices on Chris Huhne and Ming Campbell hardly moved – which itself seemed odd – we’ve seen a huge swing to Huhne during the past 36 hours as the chart above shows.

This graph traces the best betting price shown as implied probability every six hours for the past three days and the move today has been extraordinary. A lot of money has been going on tightening the Chris Huhne price and allowing the Ming level to weaken.

Is this just a natural betting market or are there one or two individuals with deep pockets who are determined to reinforce Huhne’s position as betting favourite?

We do not know. In the absence of any new polling material we think that the current Ming price at 2/1 is good value and represents a good way of reducing exposure for those who stand to win a lot on Huhne.

Mike Smithson