A report on the reaction in the betting markets

While his party’s spinners were trying to confine the loss of Dunfermline and West Fife as just being down to “local issues” the veteran Derbyshire MP, Dennis Skinner said it was “the biggest by-election upset he had ever witnessed.”

The immediate betting reactions have been:-

Gordon Brown less likely to be the next Labour leader. There’s been an easing in his price from 0.41/1 to 0.45/1. The view is that if Labour loses in the seat where he lives and where he played such a part in the party’s campaign then that must cast some doubt on his capability as a vote winner if he became leader.

Tony Blair more likely to leave earlier. The latest price on him surviving until January 1 2008 is 2.75/1 – out from 2.4/1.

The Tories less likely to win the General Election. On the General Election markets the Tory price on getting most seats has eased to 1.14/1 from 1.1/1. For in spite of the visit by David Cameron the party saw its vote share decline by a fifth which must raise a question mark as well.

No change in the Lib Dem markets. Surprisingly the Lib Dem victory has not given a boost the Ming Campbell’s price in the Lib Dem leadership markets. It might have been expected that such a spectacular performance in a seat close to his own in Fife would have rubbed off on him. The market is still being heavily influenced by Wednesday’s YouGov poll news suggesting that Chris Huhne was just ahead.

From a personal betting perspective I am kicking myself for in spite of getting what proved to be good information from the field I failed to capitalise and made just £143. Having been burned badly in my over-estimated Lib Dem seat numbers at the General Election I have been a lot more cautious.

Mike Smithson