YouGov could settle it within a few days

There’ve been big moves in the Lib Dem leadership betting following the claims by Camp Campbell that Chris Huhne had reneged on a deal not to stand and a confident performance by the ex-MEP on Question Time last night.

The latest prices have Campbell out from 0.5/1 to 0.72/1 with Huhne in from 3/1 to less than 2/1. The backers have been moving further away from Simon Hughes who has drifted to more than 9/1.

The suggestion that Huhne is standing after telling Campbell he would not seems to have done the 64 year old more harm than good. That this should be raised is being seen as a weakness. It is as though he expected to win this as of right and lacks, perhaps, the killer instinct that seems to be a key quality required of those who put themselves forward to lead their party.

The waiting could soon be over. YouGov are carrying out a members’ poll which should be in one of the papers at the weekend. Given the remarkable accuracy of the firm’s Tory membership surveys punters are well advised to take notice.

It will be recalled that the final YouGov survey got the Cameron-Davis result to within just one per cent and allowed the internet pollster to repeat its remarkable performance in the 2001 IDS race.

The online format should allow the pollster to find out the second preferences and produce a reasonably good overall prediction. Assuming that the punters are getting this right and Hughes is really out of it then a lot could depend on where his second preferences go.

This is very tight and I have continued to ensure that I win whether it is Campbell or his younger challenger.

Betfair has opened a betting exchange market on the order of the result. Who will come top and who will come second? So far there are few takers and little betting value. Thus Campbell/Huhne is currently priced at 1.41 when you can get 1.7 on Campbell alone.

Mike Smithson