Commons appearance raises doubts on the interim leader

When Sir Menzies Campbell became interim leader of the Lib Dems on Saturday afternoon he must have thought that being in the job would play a big part in helping him in the leadership election campaign. It certainly gave him an opportunity to shine because this afternoon he was able stand in the Lib Dem leader’s position at Prime Minister’s Questions.

The general verdict was that his performance was “lacklustre” and some commentators wondered whether it was like David Davis’s Blackpool speech moment – the occasion when the front runner in last year’s leadership race began to lose his it.

Our chart show the implied probability of a Campbell victory based on best betting prices.

The impact of Prime Minister’s Questions – which start at 1200 – can be clearly seen.

But if it is any consolation to the Campbell camp the fall-off in the betting has been nothing like that which David Davis saw in October. Campbell is still a strong odds-on favourite and none of the other candidates have demonstrated yet that they can pose a realistic challenge.

Mike Smithson