The fourteen minutes that changed the shape of British politics If you want to find just how David Cameron managed to pull off his spectacular victory you need do no more than look again at the fourteen minute feature that appeared on Newsnight on BBC2 on October 3. For it was this report of a “focus” group staged by the US pollster Frank Luntz that did more, I contend, to boost the Cameron campaign than anything else during that week…
Punters continue to move away from the Chancellor Politicalbetting’s Gordon Brown Index based on the best betting prices on him becoming next Labour leader shows a further decline in gambling assessment of the implied probability of him doing it. The move coincides with this afternoon’s Pre-Budget statement when he had to concede that growth forecasts had been slashed to half the figure that he reported in March. From a peak of 80% in July this evening’s calculation puts the Index…
But the Cameron-hype has yet to move punters In the final Politicalbetting General Election Index before David Cameron takes over the Tory leadership there has just been a slight move, less than 0.2% on the week, in our implied probability calculation based on best betting prices in the Labour winning most seats markets. But the pre-result publicity hype for Cameron has yet to get gamblers reaching for their credit cards. As the chart shows there has been a drop in…
It’s 7/4 that he’ll visit his old school during 2006 Amongst a range of rather weak special bets from Paddy Power on David Cameron there’s one that could be quite interesting because it touches a bigger issue – his background as an Etonian. Whenever former pupils achieve positions like that which Cameron will secure on Tuesday there is real pride at the institutions where they studied. Eton, for all its glories, will not escape that and there’s probably a good…
But will the internet pollster’s panel approach be proved right? The only betting interest left in the Tory leadership race is for those, like me, who were tempted by the vote share market that Paddy Power had up for a time. On November 1st I suggested that the 3/1 that was then available on Cameron getting below 66% seemed good value and I put on as much as the bookie would allow me. Today’s final YouGov poll of Tory members…
What do we make of the “Cabinet Sack Race 2006” Politics can be a cruel business and betting on political outcomes can make it seem crueler. In its latest market line Paddy Power is taking bets on which senior Labour minister will be first out in the New Year. And according to the bookmaker the joint favorites are two of the most senior women in Tony Blair’s Government, Margaret Beckett the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary and Ruth Kelly…
Should the unions have 33.3% of the votes for the next Prime Minister? When Tony Blair was elected Labour’s leader in 1994 it was the first time that every single member of the party had a vote and great play was made of the fact that this was a more democratic process than the Tories. It was partly as a result of this that William Hague initiated the changes in the Tory system that leaves the final choice with a…