But will the internet pollster’s panel approach be proved right?
The only betting interest left in the Tory leadership race is for those, like me, who were tempted by the vote share market that Paddy Power had up for a time. On November 1st I suggested that the 3/1 that was then available on Cameron getting below 66% seemed good value and I put on as much as the bookie would allow me.
Today’s final YouGov poll of Tory members suggests that my bet will be touch and go on when the result is announced at 3pm onTuesday. With four out of five of those who are going to vote having sent off their ballots the survey is more akin to an exit poll and the figures are Cameron 67% to 33% for Davis.
A side interest for polling nerds will be the accuracy of the YouGov final shares. For the members in this survey are the same as those who have been invited to take part in leadership polls on five previous occasions.
Could it be that being repeatedly asked your opinion on the same issue makes the 661 Tories who took part less representative than the whole?
This has always been my concern about the YouGov panel approach and for what it’s worth I think I will win the bet on Tuesday.
The detailed figures suggest that the younger Tory members are the more likely they will be to go with Cameron. In the 18 to 29 age group he gets 79 per cent to 21 per cent while among those aged 60 it s 64% to 36%.